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September 5, 2007 9:00 AM
Non-Random Notes: Thompson Announces, Arnold Rips Electoral College Initiative, Giuliani Plays Hollywood Card, Thompson Launches First TV Ad, Republican Polling Trouble, Rafsanjani Wins, Oprah For Obama, Terror Plot Disrupted, And More
Surprise. Well, not really. I’ll have a column on this, as previously mentioned.
“To me, what we have in place right now works,” says the former action movie superstar. “I feel like if you all the sudden in the middle of the game start changing the rules it’s kind of odd, it almost feels like a loser’s mentality, saying I cannot win with those rules, so let me change the rules. I have not made up my mind yet in one way or the other, because I haven’t seen the details on it but basically I would say there is something off with this whole idea.”
But they really should not be counting on the support of Schwarzenegger. More to follow.
“Rudy has consistently proven he’s ready to confront tough challenges,” said Duvall, a native Californian, in a statement. “I don’t normally get involved in politics, but I think the stakes are too high this election. Mayor Giuliani has the executive experience, proven record and bold vision needed to lead our country. Luciana and I are proud to support him.” The Duvalls will hold a fundraiser for Giuliani at their Virginia home next month. Duvall has starred in such classics as The Godfather films in which he played family consigliere Tom Hagen, Apocalypse Now in which he played surfing Col. Kilgore, Tender Mercies, The Great Santini, Deep Impact, The Natural, Network, To Kill A Mockingbird, and the greatest Western mini-series, Lonesome Dove. Incidentally, when Mitt Romney caused controversy earlier in the year with his choice of Scientology chief L. Ron Hubbard’s scifi epic “Battlefield Earth” as his favorite novel, I suggested that a good choice for a presidential candidate would be Larry McMurtry’s Pulitzer Prize-winner, “Lonesome Dove.” In the Emmy-winning miniseries version of the novel, Duvall plays the story’s hero, retired Texas Ranger Captain Augustus “Gus” McCrae, to perfection.
In particular, three groups crucial to Mr. Bush’s goal of a “permanent Republican majority” are drifting away: younger voters, Hispanics and independents. The reasons include the Iraq war, conservatives’ emphasis on social issues such as gay marriage, abortion and stem-cell research, and a party-led backlash against illegal immigrants that has left many Hispanic and Asian-American citizens feeling unwelcome. The upshot is that Republicans face structural problems that stem from generational, demographic and societal changes and aren’t easily overcome without changing fundamental party positions. Longtime Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio this year conducted an exhaustive survey of his party’s voters to update one he did in 1997. He found that the party is significantly older and more conservative than it was a decade ago. That, he says, suggests a Republican Party increasingly at risk of being seen “as very old-fashioned, very old and not in touch with the realities of today’s society.”
Rafsanjani has done much business with America. He also heads two other key national councils. This Saturday, Winfrey, who has made herself a national institution, hosts the first ever presidential fundraiser at her estate in Montecito, California (Santa Barbara area). The event is expected to raise more than $3 million for Obama, who already holds a decided financial edge over Hillary Clinton. But it is her credibility as a personality, and clout as a marketer, that is legendary. She has turned many books into best sellers. And her biggest edge is with women aged 25 to 55. Which happens to be the core of Hillary Clinton’s electoral constituency.
Your posts are welcome in the Forum. Comments (82)Jonas Blane :Bill Bradley :At least he wasn't reported to be dead. :) Ann :OPRAH! richard locicero :NPR had a feature this morning in which Oprah and Magic Johnson (a Hillary supporter) faced off on why their choices. Interesting. Capitol Boy :The Post article says fundraising is the least of what Oprah can do for Obama. $3 mil is least? Brasky :“$3 mil is least?” From the Post article: “Among the weapons in Winfrey's arsenal: the television program that reaches 8.4 million viewers each weekday afternoon, according to the most recent Nielsen numbers. Her Web site reaches 2.3 unique viewers each month, "O, the Oprah Magazine," has a circulation of 2 million, she circulates a weekly newsletter to 420,000 fans and 360,000 people have subscribed to her Web site for daily "Oprah Alerts" by e-mail.” Talking to all her people on JUST ONE DAY would be worth more than $3 million. Never mind what she could do over a whole election season. Three million is chump-change man... Brasky :California Republican Assembly is soliciting funds for Mike Spense's re-election to the West Covina School Board. At the end of the email to their members it says “Paid for by Friends of Mike Spence.” Does he move the money from the left pocket to the right? Probably from the right front to the right back – I’m sure all his left pockets are sewn shut. Dana :Larry Craig pleading for the compassion he himself never showed others. Amazing the self-absorption and egoism these politicians have (remember Pete Wilson claiming he was breaking his vow not to run for President in response to a groundswell of pleas from supporters and the public?) Why is Craig putting his family through a prolonged downward spiral? What kind of values are those? Dana :Hey, Brasky, that is nothing. I heard KNX this morning run an SEIU ad urging the Governor and Legislature end their vacation, come back and pass a budget! What did West Covina do to deserve Mike Spense? Brasky :" heard KNX this morning run an SEIU ad urging the Governor and Legislature end their vacation, come back and pass a budget! " Money well spent. Brasky :"What did West Covina do to deserve Mike Spense?" Obviously they built something on an Indian Burial Ground or committed some other cosmic atrocity. Brasky :richard , in keeping with last week’s theme, Magic Johnson and Oprah both have Bacon Numbers of 2. Dana :Was glad to see the Sacramento Bee this weekend run a superb editorial calling out the enviros for being AWOL while transit got robbed during the recent budget negotiations. It concluded as a consequence of the resulting transit cutbacks "California's environmental community should get ready to share the blame for the lack of progress on clean air and global warming." Bravo! Bill Bradley :Well, the question with all those cuts is this: Where would you cut in lieu of those? Bill Bradley :And that was very nicely phrased, if I may say so myself ... :) Ann :A TV ad. It's Fred Mania! Bill Bradley :I'm not going to write about Larry Craig again unless he actually does try to withdraw his guilty plea or renege on his promise to resign from the Senate. >Dana : Brasky :Fred looks bad. He looks older than I've seen him and he looks sickly. They need better lighting and makeup people. His former Arnold advisors should know better! Bill Bradley :Arnold pays no attention to lighting or makeup ... Dana :The better question is does someone have in a deskdrawer some smoke and mirror ideas if the shifts are found unconstitutional if the whispered lawsuit suceeds... >Bill Bradley : Brasky :"REPUBLICAN POLLSTER FINDS PARTY IN SERIOUS TROUBLE WITH YOUNG VOTERS, LATINOS, AND INDEPENDENTS." I’m sure that if there WAS a prominent Republican politician that DID well with those groups, he would be embraced by his own party’s leadership...if I could only think of an example... Bill Bradley :I prefer my question. Which actually becomes even more important in that scenario. >Dana : Brasky :"Arnold pays no attention to lighting or makeup ..." Ok, that time Scotch did come out of my nose. What a spit take - Danny Thomas would have been proud. Bill Bradley :Huh. Well, I'm sure stumped. Who would THAT be? >Brasky : Dana :I think the errant voice mail and deliberate semantic games pretty well kill any chance of either of those things happening... >Bill Bradley : Dana :True. For various reasons the budget next year may mean an end of childish games and some hard choices. Including an end of this no tax nonsense. The Reps will have to accept the 2/3 requirement doesn't reshape reality. And the Dems need to fix government instead of just shoveling money into a leaky system. >Bill Bradley : Bill Bradley :Which errant Larry Craig voicemail? I'm not tracking it. Len :Did you have fun placing the Fred Thompson ad after the poll report on the "very old-fashioned, very old and not in touch with the realities of today’s society” Republican party? Dana :[www.localnews8.com/Global/story....] >Bill Bradley : Capitol Boy :You keep showing videos of Thompson. I keep waiting to see the charisma. carole w :Any odds on the forum tonight? Bill Bradley :Overshadowed. Brasky :Barbara :Iran/Rafsanjani/Assembly of Experts It was clear to EVERY serious analyst (and most serious observers, such as myself) that Rafsanjani had the votes needed to win for some time now,..who are these PJM House Iran experts? More Friends of Ghorbanifar?! In any event, he is in a good position to be the next Ayatollah and the Mayor of Teheran will hopefully be the next President, if elections are conducted the way Rafsanjani wants then to be...it will be a very different Iran..
Brasky :Babs - where have you been? John Thomas Flynn :$101+ Billion General Fund Budget - Rich target environment for cuts. Suspend information technology project start-ups for one year - Saving $2+ billion Institute broad anti-fraud initiative for Medical. State's budget is $20 Billion - fraud estimated by US GAO at 25% or more. There's billions, and I haven't broken a sweat. Dust off CPR. Well, the question with all those cuts is this: Where would you cut in lieu of those?> Barbara :Brasky: Babs - where have you been? Here and there...very busy with changes ...I love "change" in fact can't live without it...it never throws me...I am really no more than a nomad...Toodles! Bill Bradley :I'm a bit burnt out by change. Bill Bradley :I thin the question re Rafsanjani is whether the US position is strong enough to lead to good negotiations with Iran on Iraq. They can wait. Brasky :Reeps didn’t honestly think Arnold was going to support this did they? What’s in it for him other than pain? He should come out against it. Ann :I always thought that Schwarzeneger would go after that. Brasky :Not if he wants to run for US Senate (which I don't think he does, but he likes the option). Kandy Kid :As I suggested earlier this year, the logical solution to the budget deficit is a serious game of "Gore Your Own Ox" -- where the deficit figure is split by some ratio, say 2/3rds cuts and 1/3rd tax increases and Republicans propose the tax increases and Democrats propose the cuts. I doubt it would ever happen, but there are ways to reduce the deficit if people are willing to behave differently. Bill Bradley :There's a further iteration on the front page. >Brasky : Juan Cortina :Tony Fabrizio is a long time pollster? I didn't know he was still around. I remember when he used to hang out 'round the block with Joey Cusack... 'til Joey got mad. Brasky :In the interview he also liked the idea of health care being on the ballot, but not Iraq. Ann :"Losers' mentality." I love it. That's the righty wingnuts alright. Bill Bradley :Actually, I can see the Iraq measure losing. >Brasky : Capitol Boy :Of course Schwarzenegger says the electoral college manipulation is pathetic. It is. Brasky :"Actually, I can see the Iraq measure losing." I think it’s lame, not the get-out-the-vote machine Don Perata thinks it is. It stirs ambivalence in most voters. That said, I can see it winning a sort of “impulse buy” election, where voters might not be all that excited by it, but see it in the voting booth and say “what the Hell” and vote for it anyway. No one ever went to the supermarket to buy the candy bar at the check out stand, but it’s the most profitable 6 feet of floor space. Bill Bradley :There isn't majority support for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Ann :Fred Thompson is runnign for President. I'm sooooo surprised. lol Brasky :Yeah, but it's nonbinding and people might vote "yes" so they don't vote "no." Ultimately, I think people will be so little invested in it, that it will be hard to predict their behavior. I say virtually no one goes to the ballot because of it, but it still wins. I think the whole thing is virtually meaningless and so is predicting the outcome – it’s like betting on pre-season football. Barbara :Mr. Bradley: "I thin the question re Rafsanjani is whether the US position is strong enough to lead to good negotiations with Iran on Iraq. They can wait."
carole w :The Reep forum is on: richard locicero :I can see the Iraq Resolution passing. Remember the " Nuclear Freeze" Advisory? carole w :Tancredo? richard locicero :How much excrement will Fred get for skipping the "debate" but going on Leno and running an ad? Bet FOX won't cut him any slack either. Bill Bradley :Probably very little, actually. The press are pretty bored with these "debates." carole w :This forum feels uncomfortable. What else is on TV? Bill Bradley :I remember the nuclear freeze intiative in 1982 very well. It started with a big lead and then barely passed. It turned into a heavily funded wet firecracker, if not an outright embarrassment. The nuclear freeze concept proved to be a complete non-starter in the next presidential cycle. >richard locicero : Bill Bradley :No, I mean what I wrote, that Iran can wait. The US can't wait. >Barbara : I assume you mean they can't wait...correct, they can't and they won't have to... Bill Bradley :Is that what he did running New York City? >Rudy just threw a punch. According to Rudy G, the top three Democrats have no executive experience ...none whom have ever run a a city state or a business. Hmmm. Does this mean Rudy plans on tossing off the working folks pensions and health benefits for corporate profit? carole w :I don't know what Rudy did in New York City but, I am not comfortable with the Reep candidates. The topic always goes form abortion to who is mowing your lawn? Reeps just don't do it for me, they seem old and out of touch. Ann :TODAY on Flash Report. More dictates to Republicans. NO COMMENTS by readers. lol carole w :Are we going to have a Rudy G./McCain ticket? Bill Bradley :I wouldn't make that bet. Jonathan Hemlock :Yet another tedious non-event event with the Republican hopefuls. Jonathan Hemlock :Yet another tedious non-event event with the Republican hopefuls. paul :On a completely different note, Sierra Club hit Assemblywoman Nicole Parra pretty hard on their blog for her efforts to block improvements to the air quality in the Central Valley. She deserves it - she represents a district with some of the worst air quality in the country, and she's actively working against efforts to improve the situation. carole w :I was sent via e mail a conservative newsletter called" The Red County". The newsletter just disappeared? Anyone know if they went out of business? Barbara :Obama will win. he has Oprah and me. It doesn't get any better...tons of good karma coming his way. Bill Bradley :I'm convinced. Bill Bradley :Carole, I believe The Red County is still around. You might want to google it. carole w :This forum did accomplish a goal tonight.... carole w :Just saw Fred on Leno...he is indeed running for President. Bill Bradley :You're not watching the California feed? gail :The Fred Thompson ad sucks. Way too hurried and he looks awkward. He also looks ancient. carole w :Bill, Auros :I gotta say, if Arnold contributes to killing the "electoral votes by (heavily gerrymandered) Congressional District" initiative in its cradle, it's going to permanently win respect from an awful lot of Dems, and cement his reputation for post-partisanship, non-partisanship, whatever you want to call it. Richard Lociero, do you know what show had that item you were talking about, with Oprah and Magic? I can't seem to find it at the NPR site. I can find some other commentators talking about them, but not the people themselves... I was curious to hear what they actually had to say. Brasky, re: forum, "100% chance of boredom." I dunno, I thought the part where the crowd booed Brownback for saying there should be an anti-gay-marriage amendment was pretty cool. And there were some good jokes at the beginning at the expense of Freddie. Kandy: I kinda like your "gore your own ox" idea in principle, but in practice I suspect that the GOP would propose extremely regressive tax increases. (The fact that they have quite openly pushed a tax the poor meme is kind of a giveaway.) In fairness, I'm not certain that my own esteemed partymembers would always want to make cuts in productive ways... It's often tempting to cut stuff that actually has a long-run return in terms of reducing costs, direct or indirect. For instance, mental health and education funding can reduce our expenses due to crime. That's "can", not inevitably does, and we need to make sure the dollars are spent effectively. But just cutting willy-nilly doesn't necessarily save you money in the long run. Bill Bradley :Schwarzenegger is against that initiative. Bill Bradley :Incidentally, NWN passed 39,000 comments sometime in the past week. Comments have been archived for this page. |
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Pajamas Medai wrong again about Iran. Now there's a shock.
Sep 5, 2007 09:20 AM