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September 5, 2007 5:30 AM
Improving Prospects
As anticipated, the term limits change initiative has narrowly qualified for the February 5th presidential primary ballot. This will help pave the way for redistricting reform legislation, now in the works. Without a term limits initiative, there is little real world incentive for many Democrats to back redistricting reform. And without redistricting reform, there is no hope of gaining Schwarzenegger’s support for the term limits change. If Schwarzenegger actively opposes the term limits measure — which would lower the overall limit on state legislative service from 14 to 12 years but allow all of it to be served in one house, continuing several legislative careers in the process — it almost certainly loses. Just prior to Labor Day weekend, Schwarzenegger cancelled his late September trip to the UK to keynote the British Conservative Party conference. He has also postponed a planned fall trade mission to India. In a statement, Schwarzenegger said: “While I am confident that we will be able to accomplish quite a bit before the end of the legislative session, I need to maintain the flexibility to call a special session.” The former action movie superstar will speak to the Tory conference in Britain via satellite. Nevertheless, the move to cancel is a very significant one for Schwarzenegger. The speech, which was scheduled early this year as revealed on NWN, was to be a key event in Schwarzenegger’s global moves on climate change politics, many of them involving Europe. Britain’s Conservative Party, under young new leader David Cameron, is moving to the center on the environment and other key issues, and Schwarzenegger’s keynote appearance was a significant part of that. Not going to Britain at the end of the month makes it much easier for Schwarzenegger to call a special legislative session to make up for the time lost in the very curious state budget stall by right-wing Senate Republicans. That escapade, of course, ended in a deal that was readily available a month earlier. While the politics of health care reform remain murky — Assembly Speaker Nunez floated a big trial balloon at the end of last week to the LA Times editorial board, touting a possible agreement with Schwarzenegger on a business tax initiative — and there is still no consensus on water policy, despite the state’s drought conditions, redistricting reform is moving into clearer focus. Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines and Speaker Nunez seem to be in general accord on redistricting reform, with Nunez moving to embrace Villines’ and Schwarzenegger’s insistence on an independent citizens commission to be in charge. “At the end of the session, everyone has something,” Villines told NWN of the relative chaos of the moment. “But I’m encouraged that there is general agreement,” he said, going on to note that the Senate remains key. “We want a citizens commission, no legislative veto of the redistricting, and Congress included in the redistricting,” he said. Reminded that there is an outstanding threat that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, wary of changing anything in the mix that has given her a narrow majority in Congress, will put together a $10 million advertising campaign against a redistricting reform plan that includes Congress, Villines said simply: “I don’t think Congress should be dropped.” He also said that he wants a major redistricting reform measure passed. If the threat from the Pelosi camp is real, that may be impossible. How real the Pelosi threat is is not yet clear. Your posts are welcome in the Forum. Comments (31)Jonas Blane :Ann :You know. He's post-partisan. Bill Bradley :Haha. Bill Bradley :The British Conservative Party is moving center/center-right, rather than the sheer conservative of the Margaret Thatcher days. Their logo is now a tree. >Jonas Blane : Capitol Boy :Good. Don't let the terrorists win. four waters :Bill Bradley : well... that makes them downright progressive. (everyone's putting trees on everything these days... it's the new "pet rock".) Jonathan Hemlock :There is still plenty of time for major accomplishment. Jonathan Hemlock :There is still plenty of time for major accomplishment. Jonathan Hemlock :Sorry for the double-posting. Big Mac :If the redistricting plan is as rumored (4 dems, 4 reps and 9 citizens with a 2/3 majority to pass) we are doomed with the same lame partisan districts we now have until 2021. This is NOT reform! Bill Bradley :Yes, it's so common that the California Republican Party has done it. Well, actually, they haven't. Nor have most American conservatives. >four waters : Bill Bradley :Not sure I see that. Care to explain? >Big Mac : Ann :More embarassment for the Flush Report. Still nobody commenting over there. lol Dana :"and there is still no consensus on water policy" Is there anyone on the horizon willing to be the adult and say out loud to the various involved stakeholders everyone will have to sacrifice to fix it and some will out right lose? That is a dicey thing for any politician to take on. Bill Bradley :That's why historically the pols hang back with their home constituency and special interests. Capitol Boy :Are those right wingers good at anything besides wasting time? Ann :Yes. Being foolish. lol Bill Bradley :Now, now. Capitol Boy :They're good at getting embarrassed by Schwarzenegger. Ann :Good one. Ann :TODAY on Flush Report. More dictates to Republicans. NO COMMENTS by readers. lol Karl :I thought Schwarzenegger is Tony Blair's friend. Why is he talking to the Conservatives Party?
Bill Bradley :Well, that's a theory. If cap & trade hadn't already worked in the US, it would be a better theory. And Nunez didn't catch on slowly, he is strictly a command & control regulator as befits his background. And so on .. Whitehall :There are good cap'n trade systems and bad. When you limit (ie cap) a real pollutant, like SO2, you can trade around to get the best, most cost effective reduction. For CO2, this is just an end-run around Kyoto and a way to reap windfall profits. The "cap" part stays which means a political limit on CO2 emissions and hence on economic activity unless we build lots on new nukes and electrify other energy uses. In either case, the grandfathered emitters get to monetorize their current emissions. And where does this money come from? And for what end? Bic Mac :Sorry I missed you request for an explanation. See Tony Quinn's write-up in yesterday's Capitol Morning Report. Bill Bradley :Thank you. I don't read it. Karl :"If cap & trade hadn't already worked in the US, it would be a better theory." Well, that's a theory too. Let's weigh the evidence...carbon trading markets already collapsed in Europe, to reinflate it last year EU imposed new restrictions "beyond Kyoto targets." It will collapse again as 2012 nears if no new restrictions are imposed, as can be read in European media. For bad character evidence, Carbon trading was proposed by Enron as an add-on to Kyoto. On the other hand, we have no proof that SO2 trading "worked" other than the "because I say so" arguments from those pushing carbon trading now. No independent studies, no "experts", nada. No proof SO2 was reduced beyond traditional "caps" and predictable modernization. Who ran the SO2 markets? Who also brokered the trades? Why, Enron. And so on...
Auros :Cap and trade works quite well for dispersed pollutants, not so well for localized pollutants (since then poor areas get all the pollution traded into them). For CO2, if current polluters are grandfathered, that's a huge problem. Funny thing, though: our politicians are not, it turns out, entirely stupid. I've met some of the key players on CA's energy issues, including Arnold's appointee Dian Gruenich, and I feel quite confident that if we get a cap-and-trade system they will not do obviously-dumb things. Obama and Edwards have both specifically announced that they would auction carbon credits, not hand them out based on current status. Re: four waters' comment about the tree logo, it is kinda true that greenwashing is spreading. The American Petroleum Institute has published some "Environmental, Health and Safety Principles" which are good for a laugh... Auros :Oh, and re: your line about "No independent studies, no "experts", nada." Uh, actually, a check of Google Scholar for "cap and trade so2" finds over 1500 hits. And this is a topic that's covered in any undergrad level Ecological Economics class. So, no cookie for you. But hey, thanks for playing! Bill Bradley :Very nicely put! Bill Bradley :Incidentally, NWN passed 39,000 comments sometime in the past week. Comments have been archived for this page. |
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I thought Schwarzenegger is Tony Blair's friend. Why is he talking to the Conservatives Party?
Sep 5, 2007 06:03 AM