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July 11, 2007 5:45 AM
Whither McCain?
The Arizona senator is now in deep trouble yet again after raising a respectable but disappointing $25 million in the first half of the year. He and his leadership expected twice that, and and as a result spent heavily as though he was an establishment lock rather than the maverick he always was before. This has left him with only $2 million cash on hand, less than fringe candidate Ron Paul. But that’s not the worst of it. Campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver both resigned yesterday morning. It was not a development anticipated in the McCain campaign, and the situation remains in flux. Nelson, political director for George W. Bush’s re-election campaign, according to sources offered his resignation to McCain prior to the senator’s trip to Iraq over the 4th of July. It was not accepted. But after McCain returned from his latest tour of the dramatically lagging war zone, he met with Nelson and Weaver and decided to accept their resignations. Then, in the next of a series of rapid fire developments which also saw the departures of his deputy campaign manager and political director, Mark Salter, perhaps the aide closest to John McCain and co-author of his books, including the best-selling memoir “Faith Of My Fathers,” also resigned. Salter was McCain’s senatorial chief of staff. The new campaign manager is Rick Davis, who had the top operational role in 2000 but a lesser role this time around. Salter was chief operational officer of the McCain campaign, but his role was much more resonant than that. He helped McCain give voice to his story and thoughts. In “Faith Of My Fathers,” which also became a popular cable movie, McCain and Salter tell the story of McCain’s upbringing as the son and grandson of four-star admirals. It’s a story of a bright, rebellious young man, the hardest-partying pilot in the Navy, whose life takes a decided turn toward the serious in the crucible of Vietnam. And of the aftermath of that experience with which we’ve all become familiar. Since his resignation, it’s emerged that Salter will continue as an unpaid advisor to McCain, and will accompany him on his visit this weekend to New Hampshire, site of perhaps his greatest political triumph, his victory in the 2000 New Hampshire presidential primary. As discussed below, just yesterday, McCain’s once frontrunning candidacy declined sharply under the weight of his backing for the Iraq War, recovered to a significant extent, then declined sharply over the immigration issue. Now, with only $2 million cash on hand after raising a more than respectable $25 million in the first half of the year, the Vietnam War hero faces tough choices. If he takes federal matching funds, he has an immediate infusion of $6 million with more down the pike, and floats his campaign off the shoals, certainly giving him the ability to compete in the early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina with a more people-oriented campaign. But taking federal money means taking federal spending limits, and should he get through the primaries that would be a distinct disadvantage against either of the two fundraising champ Democratic frontrunners, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Despite all these woes, McCain runs second in the most recent California poll, conducted late last month, in the latest Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll. Among Republicans, it’s Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 15%, Mitt Romney 12%, and Fred Thompson 11%. Although Thompson is riding a wave of national publicity, and leading in some other early states, he isn’t catching on yet in California, the biggest primary prize of all, coming next February 5th. Top California Republicans have embraced McCain. Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager Steve Schmidt is a senior advisor. Schwarzenegger rapid response chief Matt David is deputy communications director. Schwarzenegger fundraising coordinator Marty Wilson and Schwarzenegger 2003 campaign manager Bob White, who’s known McCain since his Senate days as Pete Wilson’s chief of staff, have offered financial backing. As have Orange County power broker Donald Bren and Bay Area financial maven Gary Shansby. McCain, who with independent Senator Joe Lieberman offered a greenhouse gas regulation bill, has appeared with Schwarzenegger himself in a climate change event. Prior to that California poll, after his first meltdown over Iraq, McCain regained the lead in two of the first four contests, those in Nevada and South Carolina. But after his immigration meltdown among Republicans — McCain co-authored the failed comprehensive immigration bill with Senator Ted Kennedy — McCain has fallen back in those states as well. Whatever the ebbs and flows — and right now the ebbs are far more marked than the flows — it’s important to remember that John McCain has been a galvanizing figure in American political life. There was a time, in 2000, when it seemed he was the figure who could unify what subsequently proved to be a badly divided nation. Had he been president of the United States on 9/11, rather than the former National Guardsman George W. Bush, the former senior naval officer and Vietnam War hero with decades of international experience — as distinguished from Bush, for whom a trip to Mexicali had counted as a foreign tour — might have led the nation in a much more successful fashion. He knew, for example, unlike the misbegotten architects of the operation, that the invasion of Iraq was undertaken with far too few forces to successfully provide security and restore infrastructure. But all that is speculation, albeit pretty informed speculation, for another time. For now, John McCain’s latest presidential candidacy is decidedly on the ropes. Whether McCain can resurrect this campaign for yet a third time is very much an open, and longshot, question. Your posts are welcome in the Forum. Comments (45)Jonas Blane :Ann :The Republicans who ripped McCain in 2000 and gave us the Bush should be ashamed of themselves. Bill Bradley :Perhaps ... so. Bill Bradley :Yes, Jonas, all part of a larger plot. Don't forget: "Raymond Shaw is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life." Capitol Boy :It's amazing how McCain's blown it. Iraq, immigration, overspending. That 's three strikes. Isn't it? Vladimir Bierko :Hilarious video. I'm sure it's not from Fox's Half-Hour News Hour. Perhaps McCain's theme song should be Howard Jones "Things Can Only Get Better." Paul Burton :In the bizarre world of the corporate money primary, an out of touch, stubborn, cranky, and mean-spirited Bush clone like McCain is considered credible and mainstream. But pundits write off Ron Paul as a 'fringe candidate'- even though his anti-war views are shared by the majority of Americans. But it is entertaining to see McCain having to face the fact that his dream of bombing Iran is over. Herschel Smith :The immigration debacle ended his career, as it should have. Ca won't make any difference. I had predicted (in writing) at the beginning of July that McCain had two months. I said within the first month there will be mass exodus of his campaign staff because money will be drying up. At the end of the second month he will withdraw his candidacy. This gives him six more weeks. I am on target with the first part. Ca is simply behind the times. When McCain withdraws his bid they will have to find another GOP candidate to support. Fred Dickey :It isn't so much McCain's policy positions, but the in-your-face attitude toward conservatives. Viet Vote :John McCain is NOT a Vietnam War hero as you indicated. He helped communist Vietnam kill fellow American pilots. Barbara :How did he just vote on the Webb amendment?...how can you support this war and at the same time not address the very negative impact it is having on our military...it's dishonest of him... Ann :What kind of nut says McCain helped the Commies in Vietnam? lol Sacramento Solon :Ann... Spot on. A little kinder and gentlier than I would have put it, but spot on! Bill Bradley :What an intriguing take ... Bill Bradley :Paul, your newfound ideological flexibility is heartening. Moving from socialism to an embrace of libertarianism ... >Paul Burton : Barbara :of course ... Webb was forced to pull it ...McCain , Lieberman, Sessions etc voted ney ...Warner and Hagel voted with Dems... I cant stand what it is going on...its so frustrating Bill Bradley :Actually, that would be "Things Can Only Get Better" by D:ream. The other is a totally different song. >Vladimir Bierko : Bill Bradley :I don't know. >Barbara : Bill Bradley :I don't know. >Barbara : Barbara :"That’s exactly what we are proposing to do today. We are saying that whatever your beliefs are about this war – whether you want it to end in five weeks or whether you want it to go on for the next ten years - we have to come to some common agreement among the leadership of the United States that we are going to protect the well-being of our troops, of the people who step forward to serve in these times." Jim Webb yesterday in Senate MCCain should be ashamed to not support this amendment and thus assisting in ensuring its inability to proceed...
Bill Bradley :Let's see if this post works. Bill Bradley :Of course, supporting James Webb's amendment -- his record of Vietnam War heroism is unsurpassed among Marine Corps officers -- makes it very difficult to continue the long deployments. >Barbara : Capitol Boy :McCain lost everything he had in 2000. It's a sad spectacle. Ann :It's depressing. Barbara :Mr. Bradley: "Of course, supporting James Webb's amendment -- his record of Vietnam War heroism is unsurpassed among Marine Corps officers -- makes it very difficult to continue the long deployments" True...that is why I am frustrated that it was pulled... but Webb is correct ...no matter where you are on this war there has to be some agreement about how to protect the well being of the men and women that serve.... however, MCCain won't go there... it's sorta difficult to make that conversation fit talking points provided by AEI... Bill Bradley :The phrase you're looking for may be ... lashed to the mast. Jonas Blane :This is depresssing. Bill Bradley :Bill Bradley :Incidentally, NWN passed 34,000 comments sometime, oops, last week. I need to keep up with this stuff. Jack Aubrey :Poor McCain. I don't know what else to say polite. Ann :McCain for Vice President. lol Capitol Boy :It's so over. Bill Bradley :You never want to say never, but ... Ann :That was the name of the last Sean Connery James Bond movie. The last. lol Barbara :"lashed to the mast" Great expression! Go see the new Harry Potter film Mr. Bradley! I went to a midnight opening show last night followed by a "Harry Potter English Breakfast Party" then a ride at the crack of dawn...strange summer weather in Sacto like someone is practicing wizardry!!!! Bill Bradley :I believe it's an old Royal Navy saying. Isn't the new Harry Potter dark and slow? Jonas Blane :More bad news for McCain in the New York Times this morning. Barbara :DARK but not slow... Bill Bradley :Dark is fine. Brasky :Read the NYT article - ouch for the campaign finance reformer. He's now standing in a glass house when throwing his campaign finance stones. Sad. Barbara :"Dark is fine" Ohh I agree!...like "Matchpoint" ...the novels of Ruth Rendell ...love Dark! Auros :Since nobody ever answered... McCain voted NAY on the cloture motion for the Webb Amendment. We were only four votes short this time... Auros :Sorry, here's a functional URL: Bill Bradley :Interesting. Ann :McCain is just so over. Comments have been archived for this page. |
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Thanks to you, I can't get that Tony Blair New Labour song out of my head. The only thing good about it is I can't actiualy hear McCain's singing!
Jul 11, 2007 06:28 AM