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June 20, 2007 5:30 AM
A Post-Partisan In Presidential Politics?
In fact, Schwarzenegger had referred to Bloomberg as a Republican when the former action movie superstar keynoted the USC conference on bridging partisan divides to get things done late yesterday morning. And yet, Bloomberg promptly quit the Republican Party not long after, announcing that he will henceforth be “unaffiliated.” And thus free to run as an independent presidential candidate, which is what he is sounding like these days. Team Arnold folks, on background, emphasized that they hadn’t known in advance of Bloomberg’s move and that the governor himself has no intention of leaving the Republican Party to become an independent. Schwarzenegger’s speech touched on familiar post-partisan themes. He called for what he describes as a common sense solution on immigration, really securing the borders, providing a pathway to legalization for illegal immigrants already here, requiring that they learn English, and establish guest worker programs geared to actual demonstrated economic need. Decrying the polarized and increasingly unpopular state of political debate in the country, Schwarzenegger noted: “There is such political divide out there that even just starting to talk about working together, it becomes news.” And implicitly answering hyperpartisans who claim higher moral justification for their attitudes and tactics, he asked: “What is more principled than giving up some of your position in the interest of the greater good? Politics is about compromise. It is about give and take.” Strikingly, Schwarzenegger was introduced with fulsome praise by the man he defeated in the 2003 recall election, former Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Davis gave Schwarzenegger full credit for the passage of the big stem cell research initiative in 2004 which, now that the legal challenges from the right have been defeated, has established California as the world center of stem cell research. Davis had made earlier moves on stem cell research, and on climate change legislation, for which he credited Schwarzenegger as the key popularizer of the issue. Before letting it be known he’s changed his registration, Bloomberg had delivered a scathing assessment of the state of national politics in remarks at the USC conference, following a similar appearance Monday at Google headquarters in Silicon Valley. Four presidential candidates — three Democrats and a Republican — have already appeared at these Google town halls. The original plan for this column was to analyze how the post-partisan tendency, which is proving, as predicted here, quite popular, plays out amongst the Democratic and Republican presidential fields. Bloomberg’s move puts that off a bit, though in the end may make the discussion even more relevant. Bloomberg, of course, is still a long ways from an actual candidacy. Few people like to fail, and the hard fact is that an independent presidential candidacy has never worked. Such a candidacy can be leveraged to impact the debate. It can also play a spoiling role, which of course is what the various predictable partisans immediately jumped on, predictably coming up with scenarios to promote their partisan views. It’s actually not clear which party, if either, would be especially helped by a Bloomberg candidacy. For one thing, it matters who’s nominated by either party. For another, the election is far off, and what seem like certain circumstances today simply haven’t happened. Further reacting to Bloomberg’s departure, right-wing bloggers heaped scorn on the mayor. Hyperpartisans are about purity, placing themselves high atop the pantheons of their own constructions. It’s intriguing how alike the far left-wingers and far right-wingers are in pushing for exclusivity in “their” parties. And how did the California blogosphere react to Schwarzenegger’s appearance on the cover of this week’s Time magazine with Bloomberg as practical, forward-looking exemplars of post-partisanship? In predictable ways. The daily newspaper blogs, which don’t say much, have said little. The hyperpartisan blogosphere is mostly critical. The lefties mostly hate it. So do the righties. The lefties grind their teeth because they know that Schwarzenegger is really a closet corporado. The righties grind their teeth because they know that Schwarzenegger is really a closet socialist. As for most people, who are not represented by blogs or other forms of media — which themselves are increasingly dominated by sensationalism and superficial slapfests — I’d guess they like it a lot. To the extent they know about it. Your posts are welcome in the Forum. Comments (51)Jonas Blane :Jonas Blane :It's classy of Gray Davis to endorse the man who defeated him. sergei :Is Mayor Bloomberg a Russian Jew? Ann :Anything that makes the "debate" less stupid and irritating is a good thing. Bill Bradley :Actually, I forgot to mention Gray Davis's re-emergence interview -- which was with me -- in early 2004 in which he strongly praised Schwarzenegger. I should do a column about them. Bill Bradley :I think Bloomberg is of Polish ancestry, not Russian. But of course Eastern European. >sergei : Ann :You should do a column about the irritating stupidity of bloggers like the Flash Report and the nutrootsers who pollute politics with their junk. Tom Kaptain :There are a lot of fascinating issues with Bloomberg's candidacy. First of course is the rumor that he unlike previous rich guys will spend his own money up to one billion dollars to get elected. This would enable him to outspend both major party candidates by a large margin which could make him the first third party candidate in modern times to get elected. I wonder what that would do to campaign finance rules in the future. The second big question revolves around his running mate. Not only do you have the question of Schwarzenegger who is clearly ineligible, but could conceivably have a civil rights challenge to the constitution, but you also have the chance that the Mayor could pick up a running mate from either party that loses their own nomination. Bloomberg/McCain or Bloomberg/Obama could have a huge impact on the general election. But of course, both of these scenarios are unlikely. However, the most likely thing that could happen would be for Bloomberg to win a few states and force the race into the House of Representatives. That could really be a mess for a country still recovering from Bush/Gore. One question I did have that Bill might know the answer to. In 1968 when George Wallace nearly threw the election into the House of Representatives. At that point in time, the way the system worked was that each states delegation voted and every state got one vote for the Presidency. That meant that Alabama and California carried the same weight and if that system is still in place today, Republicans would have a huge advantage going into a House vote. I worry about scenario's like a tight three way race with Hillary and Thompson being the major party nominees and Republicans being able to seat Thompson even though he get's fewer popular votes. I am not sure the country could handle that. Capitol Boy :No Vice President Schwarzenegger? Which ignorant newspaper was reporting that? Bill Bradley :Tom, they haven't changed the Constitution. I see you're not refraining from some fairly wild speculation ... Sullihan :I checked the web site of the Clerk of the House: Currently 26 states have a majority of Democratic members; the GOP has only 20; 4 states (Ariz., Kan., Miss. & Ga.) are tied. The real problem for an independent candidate is that he has to find 538 independents to run for Presidential elector who will put aside their independent nature and actually act with party like solidarity and vote for the independent candidate. Brasky :Obviously, a moderate independent takes the most votes away from the candidate who is furthest from the political center. Ross Perot was a complete nutjob – Grade A Certifiable. He wasn’t qualified to be a contestant on the Gong Show, let alone a presidential candidate. He “only” spent $65 million of his own money on the campaign. Perot still got 19% of the vote. If both Hillary and Thompson were the respective nominees, I could see Bloomberg peeling some serious votes from the middle. Especially since he doesn’t have to declare his candidacy for another YEAR. But until Bloomberg picks his campaign song, I'll withhold my final judgment on his prospects. richard locicero :Bil, according to MYDD a Bloomberg race would add about 1.73 per cent to the Dem. And, as mentioned above if he were to throw the race into the House the Dems have the advantage 26 - 20 -4. Of course this is based on current polling and doesn't take into account how the dynamic would change with the announcement. We do know one thing. The DAILY NEWS last month had Bloomie trouncing Rudy in a head to head in NYC. Is this the Rudy - Hil - Mike race? Forget Celine Dion. Theme song of this race is "New York, New York"! richard locicero :Actually forget this post partisan craopla. Bloomberg started life as a Democrat then switched to get a run at the Mayor and now is in transition. If he were to win he'd govern as a Democrat. See John Lindsay. Postpartisan was just Arnie's way of putting distance between him and the crazies that make up the state GOP leadership. Bill Bradley :"According to MyDD..." Richard, I just wrote that the various hyperpartisan blogs are "explaining" why a Bloomberg candidacy would be great for their side. I consider that kind of stuff a joke. Bill Bradley :And, Richard, you're wrong about the post-partisan. I think I know Schwarzenegger a tad better. It's amazing how some smart people just can't get out of their ideological frames. Bill Bradley :Incidentally, money is not necessarily the giant determinant in a presidential race. Ann :What ignorant newspaper reported "Vice President Schwarzeneger?" The San Francisco Chroncile. Ann :Only another of their hype stories. lol Brasky :"Incidentally, money is not necessarily the giant determinant in a presidential race. " Yes - in advertising, money can be used to sell something people will like (or need). If they don’t like it or need it, no amount of advertising is going to help you. CADTS :No, money is DEFINITELY NOT the determinent in winning. Because if it was, Howard Dean would have swept the primaries in 2004. And it would mean Hillary is the presumptive winner in 2008 for the Dems -- which, my dear friends, she is most assuredly not. But, money sure as hell helps...except when you pick a theme song sung by a French Canadian singer who makes movements on stage like someone with a terrible neurological disorder. Trust me, I have seen her in concert. Tom Kaptain :It is definitely wild speculation to suggest as Carla Marinucci did that Schwarzenegger might be the choice, but there is a little bit of a leg to stand on for it. There was discussion during the years prior to several different elections about Democrats drafting Jimmy Roosevelt for President. In response, some conservatives said the idea would be unconstitutional because he was born in Canada. In the back and forth discussion on the issue, several prominent legal authorities opined that not only would Roosevelt be eligible, but that citizens born in other countries might also be elgible because of the language used in several post civil war amendments to the constitution. Not a lot to hang your hat on, especially with Arnold keeping duel citizenship, but certainly worthy of a mention I think. Brasky :"Trust me, I have seen her in concert." That seals it CADTS - Barbara was right, you are a woman! Bill Bradley :CADTS, I was wondering who would admit to having seen Celine Dion in concert. CADTS :I did it for love...thats all I can and will say. Dana :CADTS, you did it for the love of Celine Dion? Bill Bradley :Very glad we cleared that up, CADTS. :) You are a tad fixated on this song. What about the big thing I'm reporting in the section above this column, THE BILL AND HILLARY ROAD SHOW? CADTS :You would think so...but that would be no. Frankly, I worried the woman was going to fall off the f(*&)(*&ing stage the way she was gyrating. And she was doing it in six inch heels -- whether you are a man or woman, you know that crap has got to be painful. And it showed in her singing. richard locicero :Bill "Postpartisan" is a meaningless phrase designed to do one thing - distance Arnie from the crazies that run the party he claims to be a part of. He is savvy enough to know that the "R" next to his name is a scarlet letter in California politics. His buddy Bloomberg figured that out. Mike was a lifelong Dem who wanted to be mayor of NY but found that the queue on the D side was too long and too hard to get to the head of so he jumped it and ran as a GOP candidate and still needed the boost of Rudy to get the job. Had the election been held on 9/10 we'd be seeing Mayor Mark Green finishing up his second term and TIME would have a different cover. But Rudy was calm and collected - unlike the Commander Guy - and so his endorsement of Bloomberg mattered. And BTW if the NYT is to be believed Rudy will go ballistic over this as he will see it as a stab in the back. Re MYDD. Sure they're partisan but the analysis of polling data there (and at "Mystery Pollster") is first rate and provides the reader with the internals - including the crosstabs - so you can make up your own mind. Its what you'd expect from a site with a lot of former consultants on it who approach the data as campaign workers in real campaigns do. And they're not ideologs. They call these as they see it. And for some time they've been calling it for Hillary who is hardly the left's favorite candidate. And on that score please see Gallup's latest. Significant since that organization overcounts republicans. Now all three Dems handily beat Rudy, McCain, and Romney. Bill Bradley :Richard, you are doing the hyperpartisan thing of saying something, having it knocked down, and then simply repeating it. You are totally wrong about the post-partisan thing. And as for the scarlet letter R and Arnold, he ran for governor and won in a landslide as a Republican. Ann :No man I've ever known is into Celine Dion. Jonas Blane :If you can't be President, you can't be Vice President. Ann :Really? Dana :Jonas gets a gold star for knowing his constitution. Amendment 12 states: But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States. And Article 2, section 1 regarding eligibility to be President states: No Person except a natural born Citizen ... shall be eligible to the Office of President. Unless the Constitution is amended Governor Schwarzenegger is ineligible to be President or Vice President. Bill Bradley :Top marks. richard locicero :Arnold ran on the environment, education, and health care. Those sound like GOP issues to you? Bill Bradley :I'm talking about the recall in 2003, in which he was elected in a landslide. Bill Bradley :Arnold was first elected governor of California running against wasteful government spending and vowing to repeal one of the biggest taxes in the state and drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. Along with some other things that made him a centrist Republican. Capitol Boy :Schwarzenegger is a moderate Republican who may be a moderate Democrat. Ann :The lefties whined that Schwarzeneger was a Bush clone when he was elected. Angerlides based his campaign on that. lol Len :Arnold was elected as moderate Republican. Right winger McClintock got 13 percent of the vote. The Democrat got 32 percent. Bill Bradley :Yes, odd as it may seem to people with no sense of the history of, um, 31/2 years ago, Schwarzenegger ran and won in a landslide as a moderate Republican, albeit one of a stripe we had not seen before. Exactly as forecast. Jonathan Hemlock :Gov. Schwarzenegger was always a different kind of Republican. Definitely not a Democrat, however. He has too great an appreciation for how wealth and jobs are created and too little respectd for political correctness. Ann :Schwarzeneger was elected on a $4 billion tax cut and preventing illegal aliens from driving. Sounds like a Democrat to me. lol Jonas Blane :Whatever he was elected on, I like what he's doing now. CADTS :Let me say one thing about the Bill/Hillary road show. First of all, its completely f(*&ing bad idea. Why? Well, I am glad you asked. First, rolling out the President this early and in such a HUGE fashion smacks of desperation. If she can't stand on her own first -- and the real numbers show she can't YET -- then the voters and the media will crucify her. And the "media" won't be the right wing crazies, it will be the Air America/Stephanie Miller ( I love her btw) who do that kind of damage. Second, a big gun like Bill Clinton should only come out in a big way(while always remaining a "presence" in the background")when the voters really start to pay attention. Anything too early, and you leave yourself open to news cycles of constant speculation -- and anything you say gets lost in the shuffle. Howard Wolfson should really focus less on screwing the other Democrats through the press and focus more on making sure his boss is talking to voters about key issues. Unfortunately, he and, to a degree, Patti, are relying TOO MUCH on the "star power" angle to get them through the primary. And folks, star power is great but if you ask Howard Dean, it damn sure won't get you elected. Third, and most importantly, Hillary has yet to define herself to the voters. It is SHE who is standing for election -- not her husband. Voters need something to latch onto and the deeper you look into polls -- particularly on the issue of electability -- the harder it is for voters to see anything other than her name ID and the star power, that is her husband, that she brings to the table. It is hard to find, if you look deep into the polls, that voters have made the connection with Senator Clinton and an issue or series of issues. Folks, love her or hate her, its the 800lb gorilla in the room. She has to been seen as something more than an ambitious politician who seeks the office for that reason. And fair or unfair, that is the perception! Bill Bradley :You're posting this on the wrong thread. CADTS :Damnit...you are right...sorry BB. Bill Bradley :No prob. NickM :WRT to Sullihan's count, GA is split 6-6 only until the vacancy caused by Rep. Charlie Norwood's death is filled - and that seat is going GOP (GOPers took the 2 runoff spots from the open primary). It is the newly elected Congress that has been seated when the electoral votes are formally counted and votes for President. This makes some freshman Democrats in closely divided states special targets in the '08 elections if there is a third party candidate who could win states and tip the decision to the House - Nancy Boyda, Carol Shea-Porter, Harry Mitchell, Dave Loebsack, Tim Walz, Steve Kagen, etc. A Jerry McNerney or Tim Mahoney, by contrast, is far less important. Bill Bradley :Thanks, Nick, great points. Comments have been archived for this page. |
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Bloomberg seems a sensible, forward moving man. I would consider voting for him.
Jun 20, 2007 06:02 AM