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May 14, 2007 5:30 AM
The McCain Comeback
It’s probably fitting that McCain, the Western candidate who mounted a vibrant challenge to George W. Bush in the 2000 Republican primaries, is reviving his candidacy in the West. What has been a surprise is that he has needed to. McCain entered the campaign as the Republican favorite, notwithstanding former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s good showing in polls. But it’s been downhill since, with McCain appearing lackluster and Giuliani off to a good start. McCain finished third in fundraising for the first quarter, behind former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Giuliani, and reached a nadir of sorts when he toured a Baghdad marketplace and declared it much safer as a result of the surge. He was accompanied by a company of infantry, with helicopter gunships flying overhead. Since then, McCain’s struck a greater note of realism about Iraq, while remaining a strong supporter of the effort there. The surge is something he advocated years ago. Actually, he had wanted the 2003 invasion to utilize a much larger force, which might have secured the country’s infrastructure and led to a more stable Iraq. His policy differed in other major respects from Bush’s course. While most have thought that McCain is the candidate in trouble, it is actually Giuliani. He has not developed beyond his strong opening burst in February, and has slid sharply in most national polls since then. Little more than a month ago, he had a clear lead in Nevada. In this latest poll, he is fourth, albeit within a half-dozen points of the leader, McCain. His fundraising in the first quarter was strong, but no stronger than that of the third place Democrat, John Edwards. McCain, who seemed hyper in the begininng, delivered an effective performance at the Reagan Library, but Giuliani tended to fade into the woodwork, impressing only with a remarkably diffident answer on the fate of Roe v. Wade. This led him to refocus his campaign on his historical pro-choice stance, a risky move in the Republican primaries, especially the early ones. With McCain running a consistent first or at least a close second in the other three of the first four states — Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina — Giuliani has been hoping for commanding showings in Nevada, and then California and other big states that follow on the heels of the first four. But these new polls cast that strategy, which many very seriously question, in doubt. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain lead in a Mason-Dixon Poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal of what are believed to be likely participants in the second-in-the-nation Nevada presidential caucuses next January. Clinton has a much bigger lead in Nevada than she does nationally, where Barack Obama has seriously challenged at times. But in this Nevada poll, he’s in a dead heat with John Edwards for a distant second. The numbers are Clinton 37%, Edwards 13%, Obama 12%, possible candidate Al Gore 9%, and Bill Richardson 6%. On the Republican side, McCain has a much smaller edge than Clinton does on the Democratic side. McCain leads with 19% to Mitt Romney’s 15%, Fred Thompson’s 13%, Rudy Giuliani’s 12%, and Newt Gingrich’s 7%. But it’s a significant development for McCain, in that Giuliani had been leading in what is now the second-in-the-nation contest. Last week’s American Research Group poll of California Republican primary voters has McCain with a statistical tie with Giuliani. Giuliani has 27% to McCain’s 24%. Everyone else trails by at least double digits. If McCain has a strong showing tomorrow night in South Carolina, where the Republican field will hold their second encounter following the May 3rd California debate, his standing as comeback candidate should be obvious to all. Your posts are welcome in the Forum. Comments (63)Jonas Blane :Ann :McCain has a big advantage. The other Republican candidates are crappy. Including Giuliani, who seemed good when he started. Bill Bradley :This column is about the Republican primaries. How things go in a general election is another matter. But many things can happen. Jerry Kiley :On the contrary, we know that McCain in trouble with Vietnamese-American voters. Barbara :NWN:Since then, McCain’s struck a greater note of realism about Iraq
I cannot see Fred Thompson being a factor down the line ...I read what Bob Novak had to say about his Orange County dinner speech, his potential roll out for his candidacy...Novak said the audience was clearly disappointed...I did not bother to go to Reep blogs because they are propaganda just like CMR and other Dems...so I have stoppe dreading them since election last nov...but I trust Novak's take and instincts when writing about conservatives.... Jack Aubrey :I'm glad to see McCain doing better. He's a great American. Bill Bradley :I think the Republican primaries will still be interesting. Ann :Jerry Kiley, I bet McCain is in trouble with a lot of voters. All the Republicans are. lol Ted :SolidPolitics.com has been reporting the McCain surge for the past two weeks. Jonas Blane :I don't see Fred Thompson at all. He's a TV actor who was a one-term senator. Lola :Ronald Reagan was also a movie star with a short political career before he became President. Barbara :
"In fact, he did not even hint at this prospect in a performance that was a letdown for the packed audience of conservative Republicans. rjschwarz :McCain's connections to ill-written campaign finance reform will ensure he doesn't win the primaries. The other issues about McCain are just piling on after that. Jonathan Hemlock :Mr. Thompson has the same background as Mr. Reagan? Hardly. Unless you consider being a character actor and one-time senator from a small Southern state the same as being a movie star and successful two-term governor of California who also ran two good campaigns for President before he was elected the third time out. Jonathan Hemlock :It's largely academic, however, because the Democrats will have to screw things up to lose to any of these candidates. vic :If Republicans want to have a chance to win 2008, two things must occur: 1. Get over the Reagan masquerade and be the candidate for our times, just as Reagan was for his. We don't need "a Reagan for our time"; we need a candidate for our time. 2. Stop the self-destructive diversion down the abortion-debate road and concentrate on devising solutions to the real problems that Americans can agree exist and require action. A few come to mind: foreign policy issues; incentives for businesses; protection of Americans' standard of living while fostering a liberal international trade system; managing immigration. That's just for starters. I don't get a sense that any of the candidates (except perhaps McCain) have really staked the plains with strong philosophical guideposts as to their character and how they would approach issues. You'd think that's the first thing they'd be trying to get across, as once you get a feel for a guy/gal, you get a good sense of how he/she'd handle a variety of problems. People forget how well Bush communicated that "core message" in 2000. richard locicero :Anyone see the DAILY NEWS article that Bloomberg would clean Guiliani's clock in NYC over who'd be the better President? Oh, and Newt is making more noises. Interesting doesn't begin to cover it! TallDave :"and reached a nadir of sorts when he toured a Baghdad marketplace and declared it much safer as a result of the surge. He was accompanied by a company of infantry, with helicopter gunships flying overhead." He also walked around with no helmet on and talked to merchants, something he couldn't have done before the surge. Yes, he had a security escort, but he has one in America too -- apparently it isn't very safe here either. That was the nadir of MSM reporting, not McCain's campaign. Normally I expect better from PJM. Brasky :Conservatives want someone other than McCain, but they also want someone other than Giuliani. Oh, they might want to look farther than “Meat” Romney too. Without a viable alternative for conservatives to rally around, McCain looks solid. Isn’t he the strongest anti-abortion candidate among the top 3?! Brasky :Look's like someone is lost. Follow the breadcrumbs back to the rest of PJM. SacNick :McCain was never as down as the media would have us believe. Despite the forthcoming "national plebiscite" in early February, this cycle will reward candidates with strong campaign structures within the states, not just big money (a la Romeney). McCain's always been leading or very close in IA, NH and SC. These most recent numbers places him on even surer footing. In short, the comeback has been foreordained and the rough start actually places him in a position to build momentum. McCain will eventually do a 180 on Iraq, probably by this fall, and begin to stop the dangerous drum-banging regarding Iran that chillingly was all too common a view among the group earlier this month. Oh, and in case anyone noticed, the winner of the Reagan Library debate was Ron Paul, the only candidate who actually talked things that are wantonly ignored in today's political climate: liberty, the Constitution, the shortcomings of neo-Wilsonian interventionism, the Founders, hard money and the end of the income tax. Pity that we'll have have to choose between big government and bigger government -- with the same authoritarian impulses -- come Nov. '08. At least for those who (1) choose to vote, and (2) waste their vote on the prevailing political duopoly. Bill Bradley :Remember, everyone is welcome, except for obvious disrupters. Ann :I thought you banned them. lol Patrick :McCain is the most experienced candidate of the GOP field. He is also the strongest on: national security, spending reform, and social issues like abortion. Viva McCain! Brasky :Thanks for the reminder Bill. I wrote three posts and never submitted them. My tongue hurts from all the biting though... Charles Bird :McCain did a pretty good job parrying with Russert yesterday. Kenneth Hahn :I can see why Democrats like McCain. He is the most likely of Republicans to cave into the Democrats and the lapdog media. He won't be the GOP nominee as much as Democrats would like that. Polls are meaningless at this point. The primaries are months away. Even if McCain slips through and wins a primary or two, and the Democrats' media subsidiary proclaims him the popular favorite, he'll never convince enough Republicans he's learned anything from McCain Feingold ( the Democratic fund raising protection act). Sorry Dems, McCain has as much chance in the Republican Party as does Joe Lieberman in yours. bruno :IF Thompson doesn't enter, McCain will win the Nomination. Neither Hillary nor Obama can beat McCain because the nation just isn't left/center-left. It's center right. There are various scenarios that could call these predictions into question, but it's the way to bet. Today's polls mean exactly zero. Sacramento Solon :Bill Bradley :
Bill Bradley :Yes, all your talk of food, Solon, means that since I am spending much more time in front of a computer that you are part of a plot to trigger a long-term heart attack scenario. Sacramento Solon :Bill, Took you long enough to figure out my true purpose in being here. Yes, it did. However, since I know you would miss me...I mean who else would you have to pick on...guess I will hang. Enjoy your day...and enjoy "24" this evening. :-) kwo :I've seen reports that Thompson and McCain are good friends. I note also that as Thompson's poll numbers go up, he seems to mostly be stealing from Giuliani. And then of course you have the observation that Thompson's politics just aren't that different from McCain's (or Giuliai's for that matter). Coincidence? Bill Bradley :I believe that's right. Thompson was national chairman or co-chairman of McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. He may be more conservative on some issues, though I do recall him supporting the campaign finance reform stuff. I don't know Thompson but have met him and chatted a bit. He's an impressive and amiable guy. Bill Bradley :Yes, Solon, well, enjoying my day entails covering this budget stuff. Which is not all that enjoyable. We'll see how 24 goes tonight. Howard Hirsch :McCain leading in Nevada? Not according to the straw poll taken at our street-fair booth on Saturday. Winner was Rudy, with F. Thompson right behind and all the other way back. Howard Hirsch, Chairman Bill Bradley :Brasky :I bet they used real straw. Take that NH! SacNick :Bill Bradley :
Bill Bradley :Amusing. carole w :"Live Free or Die" ? I saw a Tim Russet interview today on MSNBC. Tim interviewed McCain. McCain apparently said he would support the war for the next ten years. I was busy at the time and not sure if I heard that correctly but, that could mean our 3rd and 4th graders, would be preparing and training for Iraq?. I don't like that at all. Barbara :Carole here is his response: "MR. RUSSERT: Under your plan, you're strongly suggesting we're going to be there for the next 10 years at least in order to secure and stabilize that country. SEN. McCAIN: I am suggesting that we will have--hopefully reach a situation where American troops will not be on the front lines, where--and, by the way, that will not be immediately--where American troops are able to withdraw. We've had troops in South Korea for 60 years, and Americans are, are very satisfied with that situation. The key to it is, is the Iraqi military and police taking over these responsibilities. And that is, I believe, the ultimate way we're going to know whether we can reduce American casualties and they take over the responsibilities for, for governing their own country and militarily attacking and resisting al-Qaeda and other sectarian violence which will be there for a long, long time. MR. RUSSERT: And we're going to be there for a long time. SEN. McCAIN: But if it is--if it is--if it is only in a role that is of support and American casualties are minimal, then I think it's probably worth the investment. If the level of casualties stays where it is and we do not have success, then we know that that will be a, a condition that we cannot stand for. MR. RUSSERT: By when? SEN. McCAIN: I don't have a date. I think that the important thing is whether we assess as we move along. Everybody talks about--some people talk about April or May--August. Some people talk about September. The fact is that we've got to be showing progress along the way, and we will be--have plenty of time to assess that. Look, Tim, I understand you, you are voicing the frustration that Americans feel. We've only got four of the five brigades over there now. We have just begun this new strategy. It is barely beginning, and I think it ought to be given a chance to succeed or fail. And for us to, to go for two months of funding after we voted time and time again. The president, the president has vetoed, and we continue to, to try to micromanage this war, and, and if you want us out of there, then cut off the funding and bring them home tomorrow."
Barbara :and here is a link to the entire interview w/TR Meet the Press Barbara :McCain on Immigration in Sunday interview...this exchange was of interest as he denied quite forcefully on TV that he is backpeddling on CIRA. We shall see shortly if the "compromise bill" moves forward...not that Durbin (a big Obama supporter) should have been relied on for an accurrate read of MCCain on this issue...I know people working with Kennedy's staff on this issue and K's staff ONLY had praise for McCain's stance and help on immigration (CIRA) since Feb 07... "MR. RUSSERT: We're back. The Republican candidate for president John McCain. Immigration reform, a signature issue for you. Here's how The Washington Post reported it. "The co- author of lat year's immigration bill" "John McCain, has been largely absent from this year's negotiations, as he soft-pedals his pro-immigration stance. "Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin" of Illinois "said McCain's absence from the negotiations has been a big factor in the rising tide of Republican opposition" to the bill. SEN. McCAIN: Actually, as short a time ago as Friday, I was in a meeting with Senator Graham and Senator Kennedy. I've been on many meetings. I'm on constant contact on this issue. I think we are close to an agreement that I think can pass both Houses, the Senate this time. The president's been heavily engaged, Secretary Chertoff has been heavily engaged. And Secretary Gutierrez, other Republicans, including my friend John Kyl has done a tremendous job in this effort, and I think we've close to an agreement that we can bring to the floor. And I've been heavily engaged in daily having conversations with people on all sides of this issue." carole w :Barbara, ...You are keeping me updated and I appreciate your effort:) Barbara :carole, you are welcome... "And neoconservativism is not entirely finished as a political force.....John McCain is blowing loudly on the neocon trumpet ...
Ann :Did McCain say we should be in Iraq for another 10 years? Tom Weissmiller :Senator McCain has alienated conservatives. The Republican Primary cannot be won without the Conservative Base. Senator McCain did not get a single vote in the California Republican Assembly Convention Straw Pole on Apr 21. The CRA is the conservative wing of the Republican Party in California and typically their endorsements win the primary. carole w :Ann, Barbara :Well MCCain and the rest of the candidates will no doubt be asked about CIRA at tomorrow night's debate.....about 30 action alerts from pro-immigrant groups" have hit my in-box in the last hour: "The U.S. Senate will be considering comprehensive immigration ("cloture - The only procedure by which the Senate can vote to place a time limit on consideration of a bill or other matter, and thereby overcome a filibuster. Under the cloture rule (Rule XXII), the Senate may limit consideration of a pending matter to 30 additional hours, but only by vote of three-fifths of the full Senate, normally 60 votes." ) Barbara :Carole, I think one if not both sons are serving in Iraq. He is wonderful in many ways ...he should have been the ideal candidate for me...the most interesting part of this interview of yesterday was his admission that it may not have been such a great idea to invade Iraq at all!...he used that line given what we were told...but that is not good enough...because it is clear that the evidence is there that Cheney/Rumsfeld with Feith and co. at DOD cooked up much of the intel that made the "case" for this invasion....this is not left wing conspiracy stuff in blog world ...this is a serious documented accounts now coming out for the last two years written by people trying to make sense of this disaster ..so why does he have to quote every dam report that comes out of AEI?, hold a press con there?...have key advisers from Kristol founded think tanks advancing neo-con policies and spin?...something is off or he is not be honest with us or he is not being honest with himself.....If he is the candidate ...It would make all the difference to me, a DTS voter, especially if Hillary is the candidate, if he would add that it was not just that maybe it was a mistake... BUT we were, i.e., the American people were hoodwinked by a group of ideological minded conservatives hell-bent on invading Iraq to advance their own beliefs and agenda ...and there is some evidence Iran also...I am not an ideologue like them ...but he won't say that and if he is the nominee and tries to in the general...well, then I won't believe him... carole w :very interesting Ann :So, did McCain really say American soldiers should be in Iraq another 10 years? Bill Bradley :I don't think so. Wilbur :But he did say, and perhaps shouldn't have said, "We've had troops in South Korea for 60 years, and Americans are, are very satisfied with that situation." That still sounds uncomfortably close to "however long it takes." Bill Bradley :That's a statement of historical context, and fact. American troops have been in Korea since 1945. I'm not endorsing McCain's position, or whatever it may evolve into. But you must know that I can find statements from any of the leading Democrats -- including John Edwards -- that indicate support for continuing military involvement in Iraq. Barbara :"But you must know that I can find statements from any of the leading Democrats -- including John Edwards -- that indicate support for continuing military involvement in Iraq."
however...now ...I think we should not...I even think we can't... Bill Bradley :Which was not actually what I'm getting at. Anonymous :undecided Titus perched!needled,shallower absolves Uganda!nicknames Anonymous :Ridgefield mutates coolies arguments,label succeeding prick meted flocks Anonymous :falter waged conduction artificially suggested greenest glimmering inspected, Anonymous :falter waged conduction artificially suggested greenest glimmering inspected, ColoradoRight :I will never, ever vote for McCain. This is a man who believes that the suppression of free speech and the protection of incumbent politicians is more important than the First Amendment right to free speech. He believes that working with the biggest enemy of America in the Senate - Swimmer Ted - to give the country away to illegal immigrants is more important than actually protecting the borders and US citizens. Even if he were running against Hillary - I'd never vote for him. sdsssa :Good Site
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I liked McCain in 2000. I respect his opinion but he is way out on a limb on Iraq.
May 14, 2007 06:03 AM