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March 28, 2007 6:45 AM
Non-Random Notes: Worsening Standoff, Richardson On "Nuclear 9/11," Arnold's New Education Secretary, Democratic Toss-Up In Iowa, Forbes For Giuliani, Rudy In Vegas, And More
Most of the questions from the press just now were on other topics, such as the reform of the state’s massive insurance fund now underway by Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a tragic auto accident involving a now former Schwarzenegger appointee to a state board, and Schwarzenegger’s daughter’s cell phone usage. The appointment of Long is actually a key building block in Schwarzenegger’s long-term plans. The former action movie superstar intends next year to be his year of education reform, as this year is focused on health care and prisons, and last year on infrastructure and climate change. The education secretary, while a Cabinet-level post, can be either a key coordinator for administration resources and advisor to the governor, or more of a supernumerary position. This is in part because authority on education is diffused between a state Board of Education, the governor’s education secretary, and the elected state superintendent of public instruction. The latter post is held by Democrat Jack O’Connell, largely though not entirely backed by the powerful teachers unions, notably the giant California Teachers Association. Schwarzenegger’s first education secretary was his old friend Dick Riordan, the former Los Angeles mayor who ran an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign in 2002, in which he was torpedoed in the Republican primary by $10 million of attack ads from the incumbent Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Davis preferred to run against a conservative Republican, rather than the moderate Riordan. Riordan had strongly considered running for governor again in the 2003 recall, but didn’t get his campaign act together and Schwarzenegger jumped in instead, shocking virtually all observers, including some of his own staff. The new governor made Riordan his education secretary, but the post didn’t really take. Riordan became best known for making what he thought was a joke about a little girl’s name, an opinion which was not widely shared. I reported some time after that that Riordan would be leaving the post shortly. Schwarzenegger’s staff described my report as “a rumor.” The next day, they had a different story, that Riordan had actually secretly resigned a month earlier. Something which Riordan said he hadn’t known. The next education secretary was Democrat Alan Bersin, the former San Diego superintendent of schools and a Bill Clinton appointee as U.S. attorney. While there were no embarrassments, the teachers unions didn’t like Bersin and this one didn’t particularly take, either. Though not because of their criticism, more, perhaps, because the major focus was elsewhere. Next year will be different in terms of focus, and it will be interesting to see Long emerge in what will be a key new role in the Schwarzenegger administration.
In January, Edwards led with 27%, Obama followed with 17%, and Clinton was third with 16%. The 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee is running in place in Iowa, with most of the movement in the direction of the former first lady and New York senator. Says pollster John Zogby: Obama, the freshest face in the Democratic field, enjoys an enormous lead among very young respondents, while Clinton leads narrowly among those in their mid–20s. Edwards ekes out a lead among those age 35–54, winning 29% support, compared to 22% each for Obama and Clinton. Edwards and Clinton are tied for the lead at 25% among those age 55–69, while Clinton holds a narrow 33% to 31% lead over Edwards among those age 70 and older. Obama does poorly, winning only 7% support among the oldest Iowa voters. Edwards leads slightly over Obama among those with college degrees (29% to 25%), and also leads among those living in households with incomes between $75,000 and $99,000. Clinton leads among those with high school diplomas, and among those living in households with incomes under $75,000. Edwards appears to be the darling of both the very liberal and the moderates, while Obama leads among liberals. Edward wins 33% support among those who describe themselves as “progressives,” compared to 20% for Obama and 19% for Clinton. Among liberals, Obama leads with 33%, compared to 23% for Clinton and 21% for Edwards. Among self–described moderates, Edwards leads with 35%, compared to 23% for Clinton and 19% for Obama. Nearly three out of four respondents (74%) said they were more likely to support a presidential nominee who would stand by what he or she believes in regardless of whether or not they could win the general election, while 22% said they are more likely to support the candidate who can win the presidency. Through much of 2003, we saw exactly what we see here. Three out of four voters wanted someone who would stand up for their beliefs no matter what, and they flocked to the campaign of Howard Dean. He built up a head of steam through the fall as his numbers solidified, but then, that changed dramatically three weeks before the caucuses, when voters started to abandon Dean and headed into the Kerry or Edwards campaign. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself eight or nine months from now. Half of the likely caucus–goers (50%) said they would prefer a candidate who is someone they consider a moderate, while 28% said they would prefer a nominee who is more liberal, and 14% said they would like a more conservative Democratic Party nominee. The top three finishers in the Democratic field all have very strong support – 98% of Edwards backers said their support is “strong” or “very strong,”, while 97% of the supporters for Obama and Clinton said the same. However, Clinton appears to have the edge in terms of intensity, as 44% of her supporters consider their support to be “very strong,” compared to just 25% of Obama’s backers who said the same. These results contradict some of the emerging conventional wisdom about the campaign; namely that Obama is the candidate of college-educated, upscale voters, that Clinton’s support is soft, and that caucus state Democrats are all activist liberals.
Giuliani is in Nevada today, where he leads in early polling for what Nevada Republicans intend to be the second-in-the-nation contest. He has a public event in Las Vegas at 5 PM.
The British Admiralty announced that the two rigid inflatable boats containing the UK personnel were 1.7 nautical miles within Iraqi waters. The Iranians claim they were in Iranian waters, but apparently first provided a set of coordinates which are actually in Iraqi waters.
Comments (160)Jonas Blane :Ann :Hillary is doing pretty well for a loser who can't appeal to caucus voters. lol Bill Bradley :Once they were sitting on the water in their little rigid inflatables, confronted by six Iranian patrol boats, that's true. >Jonas Blane : Jonathan Hemlock :Clinton is very strong and has deep support. The Republican candidates are all very flawed, including Mr. Giuliani. Iran demonstrated its weakness in this incident with the British. Ann :OmGAWD, check poor Bob Sallady at La Times blog on his "scenario" for the Presidential campaign. He should stick to passing on Angerlides' pilfered tapes. lol Wilbur :Very interesting demographics and an impressive surge. Iran screwed up when they accidentally produced accurate coordinates, then had to declare that assertion no longer operative. Unless there's some counterintuitive strategic reason...? Barbara? What sayeth your crystal orb? Bill Bradley :I know absolutely nothing to back this up, but I wonder if the wrong coordinates were allowed to be given to the Brits to discredit the effort internally. Hap Hazard :It has always seemed to me that a greater number of folks in Iowa and neighboring Midwestern states are involved in civic life and politics than those in other regions, which might explain why the "activist" base there is comprised of folks from a wide range of viewpoints. Hap Hazard :Interesting theory Bill. It does seem inexplicable and suspicious to me that on something so critical and high profile, high ranking military and intelligence officials would get it wrong accidentally. Bill Bradley :It is very peculiar. Wilbur :Hmmm. that fits what my brain was stretching for, because I do not think they're incompetent. An undermining, in this case the sober undermining the unruly for once, does make sense out of the senseless. Death Star :Salladay is a joke. Just look at his blog and it tells you that he would prefer to be a gossip columnist. He has no political acumen. Ann :I don't think Bob Sallady is going to get a job with Schwarzeneger. He is the last Japanese soldier of World War II for Angerlides. Ann :I think Iran wants attention. Look at me, look at me! Vladimir Bierko :Death Star, let me be the first to launch a few photon torpedoes into your exhaust port. Salladay is a reporter's reporter and he's doing a damn fine job considering all of the turmoil at the Times. His blog is like the "reporter's notebook" columns of old that would chronicle the scraps of news that would never see print alone. It's a valuable insight into to how reporters see the world they are reporting on. Sure, you can take issue with a post here and there, but you should thankful the blog exists. Vladimir Bierko :Sorry, it's proton, not photon. My apologies to any Star Wars geeks I may have offended. Dana :I am curious--Iraq is supposed to have a government of some sort. Has it said anything about this incident? Registered a protest with the Iranians? Brasky :Vlad: All clear, kid. Now let's blow this thing and go home. Hap Hazard :Apparently the Iranians intimidated the woman from the British Navy into submission before agreeing to release her. She is on video apologizing for having gone into Iranian waters. Of course they choreographed the event, complete with placement of a scarf on her head for the performance. Bill Bradley :Another hollow victory. Barbara :There are several possible motivations for Iran's actions…I happen to think the captured agent theory is highly credible…regardless, we will never know…Unlike Cheney, Rove the rest of the world is not in the business of betraying the identities of their intel officers or recruited agents even if this theory is true…regardless of the motivation …when you look at the reports of the last 48 hours, I think Iran has a quite bargaining chip here ….the latest report coming from Iraq PM may mean that Iran reps at Arab Summit were happy at what they heard today in regard to as what their influence in post-US/ Iraq will be... In The last 48 hrs: Russian atomic energy agency spokesman Sergei Novikov announced some sort of agreeable resolution regarding the Bushehr nuclear power (3/27) They have the Brits announcing that they are holding "discreet talks" with them Iran's (3/27) India announced support for Iran's membership in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and this at a time when Iran is more than a little miss behaving! (3/27) The European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana announced that he is talking to the Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani with the international community's blessing …all for the purpose of resolving the conflict over the nuclear program …Larijani took the call and they are talking again in a few (3/27) 3 Iranian soldiers who were captured …Iran says "abducted" on Feb. 28 near the Iran-Pakistan border were freed (3/26) Hap Hazard :Unlike Cheney, Rove the rest of the world is not in the business of betraying the identities of their intel officers or recruited agents Barbara are you sure it shouldn't read, "Joe Wilson" and "Richard Armitage" in place of Cheney and Rove? :) Barbara :Yes I am sure...Armitage was stupid gossip...Wilson is a shameless self promoter..Cheney and Rove outed her to discredit her ...Cheney and Rumsfeld have severely crippled the CIA, which was already a pretty sick pup due the fall out from the IranConra Scandal ...But I also think there is a man now there finally who can re-build it... Hap Hazard :I agree that the CIA has been lackluster for some time, and has been full of internal strife and poor morale. Iran Contra was part of the problem, and, like the Aldrich Ames case, demonstrated at a crucial time that the agency wasn't up to the game. CADTS :From Politics 1.com: The University of Iowa conducted two separate polls of like(ly) caucus voters, one before and one after Edwards' announcement of his wife's health condition. The pre-announcement numbers: Edwards - 30%, Clinton - 24%, Obama - 22%. After the announcement: Edwards - 36%, Clinton - 24%, Obama - 14%. Bill Bradley :Right. I'll have another big poll you probably won't like later today. CADTS :Can anyone tell me what internal politics/dissension is at work in Iran? Is it possible that this is what is forcing the Iranians to act in such a ridiculous fashion -- or am I crazy (HAHAHA)? Bill Bradley :Hap, I have no reason to believe that Cheney, etc. have been in the business of blowing the cover of spies in the field. However, it's very well known that Cheney and Rumsfeld didn't like the intelligence agencies, in part because they weren't telling them what they wanted to hear, so Rumsfeld created his own off-the-shelf intel operation called the Office of Special Plans. Which bought into various fantasies about Iraq courtesy of exile groups and so on. Wilbur :Interesting that the shift ALL came from Obama's pile, but consistent with the Zogby results (and the common sense notion) that Hillary draws those hugging the middle while Edwards and Obama compete for those toward the left. Bill Bradley :Incidentally, CADTS, your numbers from that University of Iowa poll are WAY off! It's not Edwards 36%, Clinton 24%. It's Edwards 36%, Clinton 34%. One is a big lead, the other -- the accurate -- is a dead heat. I don't mind you reflexively disagreeing every time I say something about the Democratic frontrunner, but don't put bad numbers here, okay? It's bad enough I spend time chasing down a lesser poll. Oh, and by the way, in that lesser poll, Clinton leads among all Democratic voters by 7 points. A lead that actually went UP after the Edwards announcement. CADTS :The late Jack Germond (he of the Baltimore Sun (??) and the McLaughlin Group) always said, in his columns and on the McLaughlin Group, that he hated talking, taking or analyzing any polls this early in the game. He always thought that most polls were bloody useless until two months before the election -- even then, he never usually trusted them. From having watched him on TV and read his work, I believe him to be one of the best journalists and political minds in American history. BB, interestingly enough (in the world of dueling polls)I heard today on Stephanie Miller/Air America one of these polls was quoted as saying over 59% of the respondents had a overall negative view of Hillary. The USA Today/Gallup Poll has her negatives holding steady at 48% for both favorable/unfavorable. This is a good news/bad news thing I think. Those numbers show a 6 point rise in those unfavorables. The Wa Post/AP poll shows the unfav/fav numbers as continuing on the same track. At the end of the day, those numbers matter because they have stayed steady over a significant period of time. No candidate, no matter who they are, can survive in an election like this -- primary or general -- with unfavorables that are consistently bad.
Barbara :
Purposeful or not Plame's identity was mishandled by high level officials in a President's admin... Bill Bradley :CADTS, do acknowledge that you put thoroughly spurious poll numbers here. I should send you an invoice for my time and effort double checking your post. :) Ann :The college poll in Iowa sounds bogus. Clinton really leads but she's really behind. lol Barbara :Gee Mr. Bradley...don't be too hard on Cadts now...it's not like she is one of these political consultants and really understands what all these numbers mean...heck, like she said ...she is not even a DEM!...probably was just a typo like I SOMETIMES make!!!! TOODLES!!! Hap Hazard :Thanks Bill and Barbara for your own intel. I am not defending Rummy and Cheney in any way, as they are chiefly responsible for all sorts of mishandling of not only the intelligence but also the military efforts, but I don't want to see non-spy Valerie Plame be portrayed as a martyr, or even "covert," for she is neither. CADTS :BB, I got those poll numbers (with the exception of the Miller show numbers which I am trying to run down now)from www.pollingreport.com. The U of Iowa poll is not bogus. To say that is to say the Zogby poll is bogus. Barbara, do me a big favor, before you criticize my posts -- go do some research Like I do on these kinds of things. Capitol Boy :59% of respondents in an Iowa Democrat poll are unfavorable on Clinton? That sounds absurd. CADTS :The numbers aren't spurious...I got them off of Politics1.com. I literally cut and pasted them to here. I make no claims as to their accuracy either way. Anonymous :It wasn't a Iowa poll...I am trying to run down the actual poll now. CADTS :Apologies that anonymous was me. Here is the Polling Report link. Spurrilous indeed... Bill Bradley :Now, this is getting out of hand, CADTS. You have linked to a different set of polls, NOT IOWA POLLS. Apples and oranges once again. Your spurious numbers, as you know, are in your inaccurate representation of the Iowa university poll you threw up here. This is not a spin zone. Dana :CADTS, Jack Germond is very much alive (albeit evidently retired). Took two seconds on Google to determine that. Who said "do some research"? Hap, whatever her status Plame shouldn't have been targeted for political purposes. That was just wrong (especially when this administration has been so sanctimonious and loose with talk about values and character). CADTS :I sent national poll numbers not Iowa poll numbers. I got the Iowa numbers from Politics1.com AS I SAID. If I made that impression, I apologize Bill. I probably should have been alot clearer in my explanations. Jeez, I am done here. No more discussions of polls from me -- let it unfold as it will. To quote Barbara, Toodles.
CADTS :Dana...you are right...my bad. I thought he had passed for some reason. Barbara :CADTS:Barbara, do me a big favor, before you criticize my posts -- go do some research Like I do on these kinds of things
In any event, I don't agree with you what you said about Germond "I believe him to be one of the best journalists and political minds in American history".
Bill Bradley :When in doubt, hum the old Van Halen tune and check out "Dead Or Alive?": CADDTS :BB, I don't know that Van Halen tune...I thought I knew alot of them. I do remember the Bon Jovi tune of the same name. Barbara, I apologize. If you will also let me apologize for using Toodles...it is, after all, your trademark. CADTS :BTW, is it Happy Hour yet. Barbara :Of course you can use it! All my girlfriends agree, and even my enemies...I am what you call a TREND SETTER!!!! TOODLES ! Time for my India Lentil lunch from trader joes!! Bill Bradley :CADTS, that is the great thing about this new global whatever it is ... It's always Happy Hour somewhere! :) CADTS :Amen BB...Amen. Barbara, I just had one of their amazing Pesto Pasta Bowls from TJ's ....sooooooo good. richard locicero :Glad to hear that Germond is still with us. Thought I missed something. Agreed that all these numbers mean little now but that Harris Poll that says 50% won't vote for Hil has to bother them a little don't you think? Will Arnold's "Year of School Reform" have any better results than his other "Reform" years? Bill Bradley :It's important to read -- especially when you are going to cite it on NWN -- what a poll actually says. There is no poll that says 50% won't vote for Hillary. There is a poll that says 50% of "voting age" wouldn't vote for Hillary. Very different proposition. Schwarzenegger was in much worse shape with actual California voters entering the actual election year last year. Looking without blinders I think you see that Arnold's Year of Infrastructure and Climate Change, i.e., last year, went very well. Global acclaim, a second landslide election to the governorship ... Bill Bradley :Let me say something now, clearly, about what can clearly become a big waste of time here. There are lots of places for Hillary haters to post about how they hate Hillary. This is not one of them. As it happens, I am a little acquainted with her and she is not someone who is a personal favorite. I opposed the Clintons in 1992 and have written many critical things about them (as well as positive things). That said, she is one of a number of candidates I may vote for. She is highly capable and credible. I also know that she can be elected President of the United States. That won't be easy. But it can definitely happen. I approach Hillary Clinton from an analytical point of view. I strongly encourage everyone else who posts on my site to do that. Thanks. Dana :There is a lot interacting in this election. The war is a huge issue--I imagine all the candidates are aware events there will have a huge impact. No one yet has a lock on a winning strategy. The ongoing oversight hearings by the Dems in Congress will likely be shedding light on a lot that the administration has been up to these past 6 years. The jockeying is just beginning--we have most likely until after the first set of caucuses and primaries before things start shaking out, then look for it to move fast (e.g. bowing our after losing in an adjacent state where they were presumed the front runner). Hap Hazard :CLinton has a very formidable campaign, fundraising, and GOTV apparatus, and despite her negatives, she can't be counted out, despite the wishes of her detractors. Someone I know who knew both Hillary and Bill from bygone Arkansas days says unequivocally that Hillary is the one the superior intellect, Rhodes scholars notwithstanding. Another thing I have noticed out there in computer land is that some conservative types suggest that they would prefer to see her as the democratic candidate, because if their candidate loses, they are the most comfortable with Hillary on the democratic side. Bill seems to me to be right that there is a very good field of candidates from both parties. Can we get to November 2008 any faster? Brasky :Here's an opportunity for everyone to put their money where their mouth is -- the presidential futures market: [specials.slate.com/futures/2008/...] Babs -- you can buy a $100 future's contract for Hagel for a mere $2.70. Even for you doubters, Edwards is a steal at $5. Rudy and Hillary are floating around the $22-$24 range. She took a $1.20 hit today, which doesn’t make sense to me, but that’s why I don’t trade pork bellies. Bill Bradley :Exactly. It's a very complex, wide-bandwidth, fascinating situation. Which means this is not going to be a place for spin or vendettas. Make your opinion known -- great, we get it. Then let's try to figure out what's actually happening and what it means. >Dana : Sacramento Solon :You folks are far too grumpy today. Think this old person will take a nap instead of playing with you. To quote the great Rodney King, "can't we all just get along?" Finally, to quote my fellow River City rresident, toodles! Ann :You aren't the one who should take a nap. lol Ann :PS, Bob Sallady's "reporter's notebook" gives up all Democratic propaganda all the time on La Times blog. Long live Phil Angerlides, banzai! lol richard locicero :I don't hate Hillary. She's not my first choice but I'd vote for her over any Republican at this time. But "Voting Age" respondants giving out that message has to trouble people in her camp. Look, I think there is a hidden group out there that won't vote for a woman (Obama has a similiar problem) but feels intimidated to tell pollsters that. The fact that so many are willing to say they won't vote for her is an ominous number. Am I the only one here who remembers "Governor Bradley"? A lot of people wouldn't say how they felt about him either. And I bet Obama's got to worry about that. Think that should be ignored? Bill Bradley :Not at all. CADTS :Brasky...thats awesome. Actually, I was reading an interesting story (from the Chron I think)that said frontloading the primary season may not be the worst thing. The story said that it might actually make the campaign more engaging and cause the smaller primary states to have a larger impact on the election. The article said that, in effect, if the contenders carve up early primary victories between themselves --for example, lets say, HRC wins Iowa, Edwards wins NH and Obama wins Nevada, etc.-- those states with later primaries will have a greater impact because candidates still have to work hard to get the nomination. These smaller states then would have a greater stake in the primary process. While the article doesn't say this, I wonder if it might make the party conventions more interesting and compelling to watch -- frankly, that wouldn't be a bad thing. And again, I don't hate Hillary. I just want a Dem who can win the general. Brasky :I've hated candidates and voted for them. I’ve even helped get them elected…(shiver)… If Hillary is the nominee, I believe she can't win, but she’ll still get my vote. Unlike Phil, who I KNEW was going down and still didn’t get my vote. I’m not a Hillary hater, just very suspect about her elecatability in the general election. Plus, I dread going to the support groups for three-time losers. I might as well be a Cubs fan at that point (like Hillary!). Sacramento Solon :Brasky, I have no problem with you not liking HC. She's not one of my favorites either. However, I do draw the line with you start bringing my CUBS into it! Yes, I do. Let's not start picking on the 1908 World Champions, especially in a year they will return for one more crown!!! Their first since 1908... Now, off to fold my laundry and wait for a couple more loads in the dryer before my nap. And I get really grumpy when I don't get my nap...especially when it's windy and folks start picking on my CUBS. larry :Is Barbara here? Was he saying this for local consumption, or is it an important geopolitical statement of policy? Does it signify something we should be concerned about? CADTS :Yeah, picking on the Cubs ain't cool...as a Red Sox fan, I know that pain well. Up until 2004, I had to use the controversial "beer" therapy to get through each baseball postseason and it ain't pretty. larry :Solon, Sacramento Solon :CADTS, I know what you're talking about. Being a Red Sox fan, you would enjoy reading "Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning" from Baseball Prospectus. Wonderful read. I'm all ready for next week and look forward to a very enjoyable spring, summer and early fall. Yes, this is the year. I can feel it in the air. 'Tis, it 'tis, 'it tis!!! However, just in case it doesn't happen, would you be so kind as to explain the controversial "beer" therapy? Thanks, SS Brasky :Salon -- you better worry less about presidential candidates and more about the happiness and wellbeing of goats. Hap Hazard :This is the sort of thing that makes a lot of people very uncomfortable with Hillary: DES MOINES, Iowa -- "Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack gave Sen. Hillary Clinton his endorsement for her presidential campaign. * * * "The Clinton campaign has promised Vilsack to help pay off a $400,000 campaign debt he built up during his run for the White House. The campaign said there is no connection between Vilsack's endorsement and their commitment to help pay off his campaign debt. . ." Richard L states that many folks won't vote for a woman for president, which may be true in some instances, but I believe that any lack of support for her from that segment will be dramatically overshadowed by the number of votes she stands to earn from women from both parties and independents alike. Sacramento Solon :Brasky, I know about the goat...I've lived my life with the flipping goat. They should have done unspeakable things to the goat. Either that or given the creature a box seat for life! The goat destroyed my youth and hasn't done great things for my adulthood either. However, as I now reach the age of drooldom, the curse will end. And it will end this year. We will hoist the flag of victory. I will be too drunk to remember me, but we will hoist it!
Brasky :Salon -- too funny! Onward towards victory! CADTS :Sac Solon: Everytime I smell new cut grass at this time of year, I think how great it is that baseball is right around the corner. Although I must confess, I have missed far too many Sacramento River Cats games at Raley. I absolutely LOVE that stadium--great ballpark for families to see a game. Thanks for the book heads-up...on Amazon looking for it as soon as possible. The Sox AND the Cubs look great this year. However, if there is a World Series featuring the two, I suspect the Apocalypse will be visited upon us soon thereafter. As for beer therapy...ever since I was 21, when the Sox season ended my friends and I would usually be at one of the last games of the season or watching it on TV at home, dreaming of "wait till next year". To salve our pain, we would simply drink copious amounts of the beer of our choice during the playoffs and to help us survive the offseason. During that therapy, we would release all of our frustration on the Red Sox,team management, etc. (1986 was an interesting year -- from what I remember). Frankly, it was cathartic in many ways. I recommend it highly for curing the postseason blues because it makes watching the playoffs, usually featuring the f9*&)(*&98iong stupid Yankees in the playoffs, somewhat manageable. Course, while I could manage beer therapy at 21, I am much older now and simply cannot handle it anymore...now, I use hibernation therapy sprinkled liberally with football therapy (Go Patriots!!!). FYI to all, while I don't hate HRC, I do hate the f98&)(*&(*)ing Yankees... CADTS :Solon...I cannot stop laughing at that post...WAY too funny. richard locicero :Here's some good news for Hil. NOW is endorsing her. richard locicero :Or do we just file that under "Dog Bites Man?" Bill Bradley :I think we file that under she's a movement candidate, too. You know, most of her sharp critics, with the exception of Code Pink, do happen to be men. That is especially true in the lefty blogosphere. And as they start attempting to dictate to organized labor, African Americans, women, explaining that they aren't really Democrats, at least by the lights of people who discovered politics with the Florida recount and the Iraq War, it will become rather amusing. Sacramento Solon :Brasky/CADTS, Thank you. CADTS, I live right across the river from Raley. Sadly, I don't get over there often enough. However, let me know if you're ever up here and maybe we can take in a game. Red Sox look good. Cubs look good. And I even had hopes for my adopted team, the Giants. The one team I hope doesn't do good is that little team you hate so much... Looking forward to this weekend...NCAA Final Four, baseball and then the Masters next week. Great time to be retired!!! Sacramento Solon :Forgot to mention why I know the curse will end this year...I recently consumed billy goat ice cream. Yes, I did. And with it comes an end to the curse because I know there must be some good reason why I would do something that stupid! Turning to politics, the crazy old man scribes...I was quite impressed by Edwards last week. Still not committed to any candidate, but he did get my attention. Also like the Senator from Illinois. richard locicero :Quite true Bill. I've seen polling suggesting her strongest base of support comes from women age 18-49 while men in that cohort are her weakest segment of the population. BTW I see that "Code Pink" was politely escorted out of a union gathering when they tried to disrupt her speech. Brasky :Solon -- Maybe you should take CADTS' advice and "Drink, drink, drink for the home team." Bill Bradley :Yes, the Communications Workers delegates were laughing about the Code Pink protesters. Hillary got a tremendous reception too from the firefighters at their summit, much better than Obama or Edwards. Or Giuliani, who they essentially banned from the gathering and are about to launch a jihad against regarding his handling of the aftermath of 9/11. Johnnie Rico :What is all this niceness? Do you apes want to live forever? Juan Cortina :re: RICHARDSON SAYS IRAQ FOCUS INVITES “NUCLEAR 9/11,” WILL GO ON JON STEWART’S DAILY SHOW TONIGHT Is this a tragedy/comedy post? Richardson is probably the only candidate running for president who could actually get our troops out of Iraq with minimal negative consequences. He could probably get Britain's captured military personal out of Iran too if he weren't busy not getting noticed in early polling. Hap Hazard :I really think the Iranians are getting a bit desperate, and I believe most of the panic comes from having to deal with the people inside the country who seem to hate these guys who run things now. I don't know if this was a good move. They may be running a risk of being made part of that military exercise now going on nearby Bill Bradley :I think Bill Richardson is going to be getting a little more attention in the polls, starting right about ... tomorrow morning. It's kind of an interesting day for him. Serious times at Johns Hopkins, buzz times with Jon Stewart. It's too bad we can't have a unity government to deal with the Terror War. Richardson could play a big part in that. Barbara :I just saw a report that Iran FM Mottaki who is at Arab Summit stated that British officials could meet with sailors ...so we shall see... Brasky :I believe Richardson should be running for Secretary of State -- his talents are wasted as President. But Governor Cortina, I believe your description of Bill sounds a little too Brasky-esque. I heard Bill Richardson once scissor kicked Angela Lansbury… CADTS :I agree with BB on the unity government -- how stupid administration are that let talented people like Richardson go to waste on the international stage. Here is a good example. Think whatever you want about Reagan, he had the good sense to keep a guy named Bob Strauss in the loop on working within the Middle East. Bush I actually made Bob Strauss the Ambassador to the Soviet Union in 1990 (or 1991 I forget)and kept him there after the Soviet Union became the Russian Federation. Why is this important: Bob Strauss was the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee for three years in the 70's and was, in fact, Chairman of the ill-fated Carter reelection campaign in 1980. And even though he worked for Carter, it was well-known that SecState's under Reagan, Al Haig, and later Schultz, used Strauss as a special advisor on the Soviet Union and the Middle East. In the end, when it comes to world affairs, talent is talent. Both parties should have the sense to recognize it. Richardson has alot to give in this arena and, for damn sure, Bush II could use that expertise now. Bill Bradley :Maybe Richardson is running for secretary of state. Ann :Why don't Code Pink go back to stalking Schwarzeneger? That worked out so well for them. lol Barbara :Good Grief, just what I needed! they have trotted out Ollie North to talk about Iran!....this is going to be interesting to see how what happens next because I think the FT excerpt below rings VERY true... It's 5:16 am THURs...2nd day (and last day)of Arab Summit ...so either we wake up tomorrow and this is all over... or we wait for the weekend because nothing will happen Friday the Muslim holy day ...which begins Thursday eve...
“We know we have to keep the door open on the nuclear issue,” said a Downing Street official. FT 3/28 carole w :Great Comments today! Capitol Boy :Nobody cares about the new Schwarzenegger education secretary? Brasky :CADTS: "Bush II could use that expertise now." Bush II could use the complete "Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego" series. Let's work our way up from there. Bill Bradley :He is our President in time of war, you know ... >Brasky : Brasky :"Maybe Richardson is running for secretary of state." From your Blackberry to God's ear... Bill Bradley :I did Warren Olney's "Which Way LA?" radio show today on the appointment. >Capitol Boy : Brasky :"He is our President in time of war, you know ..." I thought we were in a perpetual struggle with terrorists that hate our 'many freedoms.' Doesn’t that mean EVERY President will be a wartime President from now on? Brasky :Bill -- on a scale of 1 to 10, one being "mildly irritated," and ten being "vile hatred", where does CTA stand on the new appointment? Wilbur :They should ask Ollie North instead about invoking the Fifth before Congress, and what advice he has for those at Justice preparing to do so. The only reason North never served his prison sentence was because dumb (or deliberate?) federal prosecutors misused his immunized Congressional testimony which was given after he took the Fifth there and was granted immunity. Barbara :Okay...here is one possible way this could be resolved: the EU will broker some deal ...perhaps, go back to a combination of South Africa and India's request of having (S.A's) "time out" 90 days of negotiation period before imposing sanctions and have the Iran Nuclear program dispute kicked back to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (India's idea) Barbara :Wilbur:"The only reason North never served his prison sentence" Brasky :Barbara -- your plan sounds well thought out, feasible, with a decent chance of success. But when do we get to bomb something? Bill Bradley :I'm not sure. I'm sure he wouldn't be the teachers unions' first choice. The school board association is very positive. The education secretary post does not require Senate confirmation. >Brasky : Barbara :Nope.. sorry no bombing...no Entebbe like operation...Iran ,Brits, and US all know that...this was a political risky venture for Iran not a military risk...but heck, in that least popular world poll here at NWN ...they were right at the bottom with the US and Israel so it is not like they had much to lose!....they will get a piece of the pie in Iraq before this is all over too...then the whole nuclear program problem will be dumped in the IEAE where they feel they will be handled more fairly ...but like most international forums it will digress into attacking Israel's aggression in the ME and it's nuclear program!...I am just musing ...I have not read anything like I am proposing ...but this will not go on much longer ,,,this is BLACKMAIL not a hostage crisis...believe me, I know the difference I am sorry to say... Brasky :Brooklyn's only Fields Medal winner, Paul Joseph Cohen, just passed. He was famous for proving that the Continuum Hypothesis could not be proven. Wrap your head around that... richard locicero :That's aamazing. I would have thought that Brooklyn had produced more Fields awardees. They have several Nobel Lauriates after all. Maybe all the math inclined went into Physics. Brasky :I think only a handful of Fields have been awarded to Americans -- like a dozen? calwatch :My question is who cares about Schwarzenegger's cell phone bill? Or is this just a slow news day? larry :Barbara, Sooth Sayer :My God...111 posts? Barbara :Larry, I just saw the item in the Herald Trib you referenced...briefly here is my take...I think it was both for ME and US consumption ...the Saudi's told Bush not to go into Iraq...once we went in and the Sunni/Shia conflict started they were concerned about us making an exit that would leave the Iraq Sunni's vulnerable to a Shia majority...however,it is clear they have no confidence in the Bush handling of all this and why should they? They have truly stepped up to the plate to lead the Arabs, but they are correct, they need Lebanon, Iraq and the PNA/Hammas conflicts to be resolved for them to be seen as effective and to hold their own and even combat a very empowered Iran down the line if need be...I think the US should be pleased to see REAL ARAB leadership but yes concerned because the Saudi's will be courted not only by Russia as is already happening, but China also eventually, ..and a new independent thinking Saudi Arabia will take some getting use to ..I think they singled out the US inpart because we are seen as AGGRESSORS in the ME and in much of the world, so why not use us to show they are not a uS puppet (al Queda's charge) but also because they ARE very IRRITATED with us at the moment for dragging our feet in recognizing the new Palestinian Government which is a coalition gov of Fatah and Hamas and at least one independent .. they brokered in Mecca about a month ago...they see working with this gov as pivotal to weaning away Hamas from Iran... Barbara :Sooth I don't know where you have been?! ...but if you think you can come and be all intriguing and all those things and then disappear and then re- appear and that we are all going to just jump into your arms again ...well ...all I can say ...is ... Toodles!!!! Brasky :Let's give him a Norm-like welcome. All together - "SOOTH!" Bill Bradley :I won't tell you guys where I found him ... carole w :Sooth...very sexy...teasing us like you do! larry :Barbra, Thank you for a typically insightful, informative, and analytic post. I certainly agree that we do not have the leadership now to deal with any of the problems in the Middle East in any positive way. Barbara :Sooth:Second wave of candidacies are being readied and one should just remember the last time Brasky, look at what he said ...I am going to put some money on Hagel! Carole, He's the only man that undertsands me! but Shhh! don't tell anyone! Ann :Too funny!
Let's give him a Norm-like welcome. All together - "SOOTH!" Capitol Boy :Why is Schwarzenegger overshadowed by the Middle East? I do not understand this. Barbara :Your welcome Larry... I am worried about Israel...hoping this new wild realist Russian on the scene is the real thing... Brasky :Babs -- how much you putting on Hagel? He's running on such low volume, you're going to impact the market! Maybe NWN fans can use this information. Hmm, where did I put those Enron memos... carole w :Barbara, Jonas Blane :Barbara writes like she is with the State Dept. Sooth Sayer :Barb, Wilbur :Barbara, what Ollie North did, and who he did it with, is relevant to what's going on now and who's pulling the strings. She who ignores the lessons of the past, etc. etc. A certain Dick Cheney was Vice Chair of the committee which conferred the testimonial use immunity which was then cleverly played to shield North and several cohorts from successful prosecution. Even then Cheney was pushing for the reinstatement of supreme executive power to disregard Congressional contraints, i.e., put the President back above the law where he belongs. , which has been Cheney's theme throughout this decade's resumed effort to create an imperial presidency. Check out John Dean's take at [writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20060...] Sacramento Solon :Okay, Sooth is back. But, where's Jullian? Check in please... Sooth Sayer :And another thing or two... Sacramento Solon :Sorry, folks, must be past my bed time...mean to type Jillian. Sorry, Jullian. Both you and Jullian can check in... Good night. sergei :The English and US are tied up by your niceties. The Persians did this thing as they know they can get away with it. Jonas Blane :Would Russia send out the assassination squads? Bill Bradley :Something certainly struck a nerve here with all the comments. I wouldn't have predicted this. Ann :I don't know where to start. lol kandaharkid :What about Afghanistan? Bill Bradley :Troubled, troubled, troubled. Ann :What happened to the Taliban offensive? Barbara :Mr. Bradley:Something certainly struck a nerve here with all the comments. I wouldn't have predicted this" It's Sooth Mr. Bradley!....He's back in town! Bill Bradley :Must be it. Good thing I tracked him down in Budapest. Barbara :Wilbur:Barbara, what Ollie North did, and who he did it with, is relevant... well I am aware of the Cheney role in Iran/Contra...there is little Iran/Contra trivia that I am unaware of..I was responding on a personal note not being dismissive of Cheney's actions or role...I have my reasons for not wanting to see North go to jail...and they are my reasons of no interest to anyone else... I was not saying that we should dismiss Cheney's modus operandi ...he has proved to be quite dangerous and destructive fellow...again, I was only offering up a personal note on one individual (i.e., Ollie) that you cited...again, I am not that bothered that Ollie did not serve time...there are others who should really have been penalized and perhaps done time ...but exposure would have been enough for me ... but they went unexposed because they saw to it that the one person who could have exposed them ...never could....and because they went unexposed they lived "politically" yet another day and were able to infect yet another Presidential administration with their neo-con plague and start a very big horrible war. Ann :Budapest? What a notorious city. Barbara :Well Mr. Bradley, there have not been any riots reported of late in Kossuth Square so our SOOTH must have been behaving himself....somewhat...!!! Bill Bradley :He's on the other side of the Danube River. In Buda. Or Pest. One of the two ... You have no idea how satisfying it is to tell someone they are from Pest ... :) Barbara :Mr. Bradley! Jonas Blane :What? >Barbara : Barbara :well Jonas !you need to listen to Gwyneth paltrow and Baby Face sing...(I love Gwyneth she was in one of may favorite films "Possession" !!!) "But it was just my imagination (ohh, so fly look out my window) Gee! I hope someone comes and does ONE MORE POST so that Mr. Bradley has an even 150 for the day the Sooth came back! Toodles! RM 'Auros' Harman :*obliges Barb* Bill Bradley :Gwyneth Paltrow sings? Yet another alarming development since she moved to London ... :) Barbara :Mr. Bradley she always sang! It's from her film "DUETS!" It's the version w/Babyface! ...her Dad directed her in DUETS! ...it's wonderful, her version of this song is my favorite! Ann :Gwineth Paltrow singing, that is hysterical, she can barely talk. lol Jonas Blane :Gwyneth Paltrow is from Pest. Ann :Gwynth Paltrow is a pest. lol Barbara :Let's see...Gwyneth, a woman, PRETTY, TALENTED, makes great babies and some great films and no doubt is very LOVED .... very interesting... that she invokes your disdain... Bill Bradley :I suspect some people are just kidding around. Barbara :perhaps...but with "some people" how would one really know ... Bill Bradley :The Shadow would know. Ann :I always know what I mean! Comments have been archived for this page. |
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The English were wise not to battle it out with the Iranians there last week.
Mar 28, 2007 07:06 AM