 |
|
|
|
October 10, 2006 5:57 AM
Schwarzenegger's Secret Weapon
At very first, very casual glance, the campaign calling center in this NWN video looks like any phone bank from time immemorial. But that casual look is very deceiving; this is one of 48 very high tech calling centers throughout California that every night for months have been burrowing into California’s electorate to turn out a vote not only for Schwarzenegger, but also for his ticket mates. Schwarzenegger deputy political director Josh Ginsberg, who oversees the calling centers, gives an overview along with calling center coordinator Scott Scheid as we walk through that aspect of the operation. When campaign manager Steve Schmidt and chief strategist Matthew Dowd took over Schwarzenegger’s political operation at the beginning of the year, in the wake of 2005’s “Year of Reform” special election debacle, they sold him on an unprecedented get out the vote operation. Actually, he didn’t need much selling. It was big, it was high tech, it involved many thousands of activists, it had never been done before in a statewide race. He was in. For $20 million, which is what the Team Arnold-led Victory ‘06 program is costing. What that not so small fortune has bought is a state-of-the-art computerized telecommunications system, highly sophisticated “data mining” to enable “micro targeting” of potential supporters, and a cadre of some 75 staffers working for the Republican Victory ‘06 and Schwarzenegger campaign operations. Beginning last spring, working outward through concentric circles of core Republican activists and Schwarzenegger admirers to entirely new people, this group set about the task of recruiting 90,000 volunteers to work, at various stages of the campaign up through election day get out the vote operations, a universe of some 1.5 million voters. Many Republicans were skeptical, and that is putting it mildly, hearing of the goal of 90,000 volunteers. “Arnold’s Texans are crazy,” one ranking Republican said. Despite a lot of talk, in the past, the party and its standard-bearers had had at most perhaps a tenth of that many volunteers. They don’t have 90,000 volunteers, says campaign chief Schmidt, they have some 60,000 volunteers, with “over 70,000 by the final push.” Last week, he says, the operation had “300,000 completed phone calls to targeted voters.” “We’ve never had anything like this,” says state Republican chairman Duf Sundheim. “Steve Schmidt and his colleagues are a godsend to this party. With the approach of this governor and these techniques, we can put California back in play in presidential politics.” The operation, somewhat ominously for Democrats, is not simply to re-elect Schwarzenegger, although that seemed challenge enough when they began building it in February. It benefits the entire Republican ticket, as a recent visit to one of the 48 Voice Over Internet Protocol calling centers around the state made plain. The operation was humming with some 40 volunteers, all of them calling targeted voters computer selected, the calls computer monitored for quality control, their messages determined by sophisticated research. Multiply that by the number of calling centers and it was easy to see how this operation is able to effectively work the selected voter universe to turn them out to vote, either by mail or on election day. “We’ve made hundreds of thousands of calls to our targeted voters every week since the spring,” says Schmidt. Recruitment began in February, putting together the staff, integrating with existing party and campaign apparatuses, modernizing lists and going after volunteers. It is not just a matter of voter preference, it is a matter of tweaking that preference and motivating it through “pleasure points” and “anger points,” says a micro targeting expert. This is done through individualized communication via phone and mail. Traditionally the vote has been turned out geographically. Now, says Schmidt, “it is not a matter of where you live but how you live.” Deep data mining of the myriad of pieces of information about all of us that now exist in consumer and political databases enables Team Arnold to go after voters the way Capital One and Visa go after consumers. A constellation of data points about the targeted voter helps produce a sequenced plan to communicate targeted messages to that voter through phone and mail to motivate that voter to vote, either by mail — increasingly a preference because the votes are essentially “banked” by the campaign — or in person. These techniques were first used by Republicans in the 2002 mid-term elections, to substantial effect. Anticipated losses did not occur. They were used to much greater effect in the 2004 presidential race, in which an historic Democratic effort to turn out the vote was outgunned by the Bush/Cheney team. Now they are being employed for the first time at a statewide level. “If you had told me a year before the election that John Kerry would get 59 million votes, I would have said he would be president,” notes Schmidt. But the Bush/Cheney team, of which he and Dowd were key parts, helped in part by this sort of operation, bested that outstanding Democratic effort. Kerry’s vote total broke the previous record for the most votes for president. Yet he lost. “The Democratic message in GOTV (get out the vote),” says Schmidt, “is to say vote for (Phil) Angelides. Our message through this program is that Arnold is the right choice for those issues that matter to the voter. That gives them equity in this election.” Comments (78)Ann :HeHateMe :Whoa. Schwarz and the Republicans are lucky they can focus on down ticket candidates since Angelides campaigns seems to be losing ground. Will this make for some competitive races? Ann :They have as many people making phone calls for Schwarzeneger in that video as show up at Angelides events. lol Bill Bradley :There are four statewide races currently very much in play. Lieutenant Governor Sacramento Solon :The two races the Dems must win are Lt. Gov and Controller. Ought be no place for the likes of McClintock or Strickland. None, zip, zilch, zero! Barbara :I would also hate to see Stickland and McClintock advance in politics...but I cannot worry about these Dems at the state level anymore...I am just focused on Congress...California's Labor leadership seems determined to have California Dems lose big this here...they have stuffed Phil down everyone's throat until we gagged...from day one they all acted like Phil's consultants, instead of representatives of a politically diverse workforce, endorsed him over Westly instead of just waiting to see what happened in the primary, helped him attack Westly...fronted that so-called primary I.E....they are the reason everything has gone amuck...I cannot imagine ever being anything but a DTS voter. Rich :I wanna be a Republican! Jonas Blane :Your Democrats have been resting on their laurels. They were too successful, they are in danger of being humiliated. Your Garry South is right, "triage" Angelides and save what you can with the rest. Barbara :I just finished reading the daily "Antonio goes to Asia" blog!...(LA Times) Now, I have something new to worry about! ...I hope the Dems don't get it in their heads to steal him away from us here in California and put him on the Natl ticket as VP in 08! wilbur :Is Arnold's boiler room operation targeting House races as well? Is he helping right-wing partisans other than McClintock? For me the that would knock some of the shine off his centrist image and bolster the argument that he's just striking an election cycle pose. Dan Ancona :This sounds like an impressive program. That's certainly a lot of volunteers! The good news for the Democratic effort in this state is that the infrastructure to match the Rs on this is being built. Bill Bradley :Wilbur, I know they are pushing the statewide ticket in this operation. (Although we will see who gets a big push. I have some guesses.) I know that other Republican candidates also are being included. I don't know all those specifics though i would point out few districts are competitive in California. Notice that I was not talking about the specific scripts and so forth. That stuff is secret, they aren't going to give me that because that would reveal exactly what they are doing. There was a shot of some scripts on a table, which Bob Mulholland is probably trying to blow up now. :) Which won't work, because the resolution of the video is stepped down a couple of times to stream it over YouTube. Rich :Mr Acona- The RNC has a national database of every voter, the DNC does not - granted we tried, but failed (cf. Campaigns & Elections May Issue). At this point, any attempt to manufacture a facsimile of what the R's are doing within the state is a two year project at best. Rich :Mr. Bradley- In one of The Hotline Blog's "Document Dumps" they had a memo from Rep. Tom Cole, the NRC liaison to the NRCC, regarding GOTV operations. In it, they are asking for all Republican MOC's (especially safe ones) to dovetail their GOTV operations with the state and local ops. My guess is that depending on geography (which can certainly be used within the scopt of micro-targeting) they may be leading with the MOC, talking about voting for McClintock and then reminding them to vote for GAS. At least, that's how I'd do it. A little backwards, but it does seem to work, especially when talking to "the base"...which, by the way, the D's are not doing. We're naturally assuming that people in the cities are going to vote for our candidates. Percentage-wise, ths is probably true (at least up North), but there will be nowhere near the turnout needed in the Bay Area to pull off a victory on election day should the Treasurer get close. Ann :Is that Steve Schmidt talking offcamera in the background at the end of the video about working at the White House and Schwarzeneger appreciating what they are doing? Jonathan Hemlock :The other media reported microtargeting as running ads on The Golf Channel. I presume this is what they are really doing. Bill Bradley :Rich, what you are saying makes a lot of sense, I simply don't know if that's what they are doing. Your bigger point is very apt. It's no longer about geographic targeting, it's about psychographic targeting. For Phil to have "raucous rallies" as they are reported in the SF Bay Area -- which aren't very big, by the way, in fact, they are pretty small by big-time politics standards -- does little to activate or turn out many Democratic voters who aren't already in that hyperpartisan frenzy. For them, it's just a passing moment on a local TV news show, if that. Ann :There were no Poochigian or Claude Parish signs. lol Bill Bradley :That was Steve Schmidt talking in the background with volunteers at the end there. Tim :Bill: Bill - are the Dems. planning anything remotely comparable to this? or they simply going with the old union-hall-based and union-driven GOTV? AthlonGuy :I got a call the other day asking me to vote for Schwarzenegger because Angelides was going to remove from the border the National Guard troops now being used to slow illegal immigration. Their extensive data-mining research must include when a voter usually sits down for dinner, so they can call during dinner. Fletcher :The Congressional races that will fall to the Republicans - not even yet deemed competitive - should make Democrats blanche, their blood curl. David H :This is an excellent strategy for team Arnold. He has learned from his debacle of the special election when his major media buys drove opposition voters to the polls. By focusing on who he wants coming to the polls, he can assure white older rich people voting and leaving the working class wondering if there is even an election. Organized labor has left its members high and dry. Wilbur :This is reminiscent of Bill Richardson's forward-thinking (for its time) direct-mail outfit of the late 70s>80s, extrapolated into the cyber-age. A lot of political capital within a party can be earned this way. It's disappointing that the Dems are not competing in this arms race. I agree complacency probably plays a role, but Cal Dems should not be complacent about the downticket, about this year's house races, nor *particularly* about 2008. The Reeps are tuning a machine which will be a real force in 2008, probably in hopes of having a shot at California's electoral college votes. Bill Bradley :Very observant, Ann. Wilbur, 2008 in California would depend on who the Rep nominee is. If McCain or Giuliani, doable. Somebody else, maybe not. Assuming Michael Bloomberg does not run as an indendent, which would throw things into disarray. Kandy Kid :Poochigian and Parrish probably do not have any signs at all. Poochigian is rightly focused on electronic media and Parrish is a Bozo loser who does not even have a website. Dan Nguyen :The best is yet to come as we have not seen everything yet. Steve Schmidt, if he’s still around, will make California a Red State in 2008. Ann :I thought Pookachigian was focused on his innovative Internet strategy. lol He's already spent his money. Loser. Bill Bradley :Poochigian still had $1.6 million left after his big push on TV and radio. His friends are hoping for an IE. I hear it's doubtful. Bill Bradley :Dan, I believe Chairman Sundheim's best hope is for a Purple State. There aren't many Republcians like Schwarzenegger, politically or, obviously, otherwise. Bill Bradley :Btw, and I'm getting out of range. I've just seen the new Angelides ad. Good ad. For a primary. I'll tell you later what is wrong with it for a general election. But it will help get more Democrats so he won't be down there in the low 30s. Which maybe is the idea. nvthumbs :I wonder why the California GOP can look forward to a successful year in 2006, with Dem registrations dropping like a stone, in an increasingly non-white population, while their counterparts in New York, with similar demographics and liberal politics, are tanking, with Dem registration surging by over 550,000 since 2000? Barbara :I just saw the AD at Ca Majority Report...they are writing more about Congressional races so I am there everyday now!...It is a very pleasant AD to watch BUT it should not be called a BIO AD...I mean they forgot about his days as a developer...so I do not understand why everyone thinks this is a Bio AD.. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA :If you only vote for one Republican this election, PLEASE consider voting for Tom McClintock. Tim :The Bloomberg campaign in NYC had a similar massive GOTV/call center/ microtargeted operation. It was massive and quite expensive. goodFURyou :Conversation from lunch: "Did you see today's video from New West Notes?" "Yeah, we are f-cked." "I'm not sure it's 'we' anymore." "Good point." Carl Burton :Bill, Thanks for stopping by our Victory 06 Headquarters in Sacramento. We now have Poochigian signs. If you want to know where our local Victory 06 Headquarters is located or how you can help visit http://www.ccrgop.org Carl Burton
Paul8148 :The thing about 08 is who is the noms. Rudy and McCain has a chance of course. Perhaps Romney has an outside shot too. The Bloomberg factor would be interesting (I don't see him running if Rudy or McCain is the nom) but would he end up taking as much or more votes from the Dems? vicstich :"The Reeps are tuning a machine which will be a real force in 2008, probably in hopes of having a shot at California's electoral college votes." As I posted elsewhere, I do this for a living, and this writeup sounds mostly like naivety and hype to me. Both parties have been doing this for years now, and I've seen bigger operations in smaller states. It's definately worth doing, and if the Dems don't feel like doing it this cycle and saving their money for elsewhere, well, good or bad, that's a strategic decision, not one born out of some brilliant strategy that Republicans have that Democrats don't. As far as I can tell, the big difference on the two parties on this is that Democrats tend to publicize it far less, and the national Republican Party is better organized and computerized. Targeted GOTV work does make a important difference in close races, but talking about it flipping an entire state permanently from blue to red is just plain ignorant of what it accomplishes: it's an important part of the hype (especially to get volunteers pumped) but it's also very easy to overblow. We're talking about making sure the base is maximized percentagewise, not magically flipping the votes of the bulk of the electorate. Bill Bradley :Well, "vic," I don't know who you are but I can assure you this is not the amateur hour. Here is what you should ask yourself. If this is unimportant in 2006, why was it so important in 2004? I mean, really, think it through before exercising your fingers to such an extent. Bill Bradley :The Bloomberg campaign, which spent about 80 million dollars in each campaign, dealing with a far smaller population, did all kinds of things. But by definition, since he ran in the past, what he did was not as technologically advanced. Incidentally, the Dems, as others have noted, are behind the curve on this. Ann :What is that rock song playing in Angelides' new commercial? Sportsfan :vicstich, I'm not sure where you read anywhere people claiming this operation will change California "permanently from blue to red." That's such an egregious and wierd misunderstanding of what's being talked about here that, if you ever did work in this business, you probably had a difficult time with policy discussions. California is a very interesting state, it's got enough red in it to fill many other states, and enough blue too. Like Texas, there is enough energy in either side to make the critical mass for a significant movement of some kind. That's not as true in poorer, smaller states. California could be put into a position where the democrats have to fight very hard there instead of focusing elsewhere. What do the Democrats lack? Money. Unions aren't as rich as they once were. The more the Republicans can cause the Dems to spend in places where is doesn't want to (Ohio, Penn. Florida) the better for the republicans. I imagine that if, for every two dollars the gop spends, the dnc has to spend one, this leads to major, major complications for the DNC, which is already skimping in anticipation of having a hard time financing the 2008 election. Nobody is talking about 'shifting california to red." It's a logistical battle. It's Grant versus Lee. Bill Bradley :You know, I didn't recognize the song the one time I watched the ad in a hurry. Phil Angelides is in a unique position. He is the only Democratic nominee for governor of California in my lifetime, aside from Cruz Bustamante, who has been stuck in the low 30s like this. I think that is why he is essentially re-running a Democratic primary campaign. This is the sort of ad I expected him to run over half a year ago. Instead he ran, well, I'm running out of time. He's trying to get a respectable Democratic vote, since he has been running, shockingly, well below the baseline level for a credible Democratic nominee in California. Tim :Geoffrey :As a longtime Republican who has really soured on the GOP, especially nationally, I was quite impressed when I got a call from these guys. Either the caller was a great actor with a great script or he was a hardcore Republican, because when I made an off-hand comment he finished my sentence and took the conversation up a notch. This fall, I am indifferent to what happens to the national GOP. But since I will not miss the chance to support the Schwarznegger agenda, I'll be voting for them out of habit. If this works - and it certainly worked on me - there should be a boost for the whole GOP ticket simply because it's giving resigned Republicans a reason to go to the polls. Jason Vega :Barbara :Re: Controller race Bill Bradley :Wilbur, I'm sure someone is divining the deep signfiicance of "Let your love flow" in the latest Angelides TV ad, but to me it sounded like a typical old song with a big electric guitar. Wilbur :WHY are they not using the Who's "We Won't Get Fooled Again"? Barbara :Let Your love Flow!!!!That is the name of his AD song....well NOW we know the funniest moment of his campaign! HeHateme :"There are four statewide races currently very much in play. Lieutenant Governor Too bad the AG race isn't in play. Some cop friends of mine dreading Brown as AG. aphrael :Jim: i've considered voting for McClintock, just as I considered voting for him in 2003. But my bottom line is that I don't trust a social conservative in the Governor's office, and the Lt. Governor is too close to that office for my taste. If McClintock were running for treasurer or controller, i'd vote for him in a heartbeat (and have, before). But Lt. Governor or Governor are a different game, and --- as much as I think he'd be good in terms of fiscal responsibility and accountability, I think he'd be a disaster on the social front. Wilbur :HeHateMe, tell your cop friends to relax about Brown. He simply isn't the soft-on-crime caricature Pooch is desperately pushing, even if it was barely half-true 30 years ago, and besides there isn't much the AG can do that significantly affects criminal justice at the retail level. What I imagine you *can* expect him to do, to the consternation of some powerful business interests, is to pick up where Lockyer left off in consumer and environmental protection and perhaps ramp that up a bit. Ann :Do Democratic nominees like Angelides and Bustamante run in the low 30s against Schwarzeneger because they are lousy candidates or because they are running against Schwarzzeneger? Bill Bradley :I have to think you can come up with better scenarios for running against Arnold Schwarzenegger. It is interesting that people talk about Kathleen Brown, who should have waited four years to run because she was not yet ready to go up against an incumbent governor. She was never in the low 30s. goodFURyou :Ann, just leave it a rhetorical question. Ann :Did not this dude Carrick your friend say in your video that Angelides raised a huge take of money in his Bill Clinton fundraiser?
He said they had to choose between spending the limited funds in August and risk having money problems later in the campaign, or wait and spend the money in October. "There's still time," he said. Smarty Pants :I have more news about the Schwarzenegger juggernaut. They just got done registering more than 18,000 Republicans in the state, 12,000 of which agreed to receive an absentee ballot. In addition to that, the same program is targeting low propensity Republicans door to door to sign them up to vote by absentee ballot. I don't know the numbers on that program but I hear there are 25 managers throughout the state that each have between 10 and 30 employees going door to door each day. It is widely reported that nearly 80% of people that take an absentee ballot actually vote. Bill Bradley :Nice job of wasting time with nonsense numbers, new poster. Use your real name or you're banned. Back to work at the campaign, sport. Paul Burton :Someone above (Dan Nguyen) did say: "The best is yet to come as we have not seen everything yet. Steve Schmidt, if he’s still around, will make California a Red State in 2008," so maybe that's what "vicstich" was referring to. At the Angelides' 'anti-war' rally in SF last month SF Mayor Gavin Newsom made a comment to the effect that "We can't let Schwarzenegger win and have California be in play for the presidency" so it seems some democrats are worried about that blue to red or purple possibility. The song is "Let Your Love Flow" by the Bellamy Brothers, a retro-1970's country-rock ditty that was a hit in 1983. "Let your love flow like a mountain stream, etc etc.." It must be part of a new warm and fuzzy makeover for Mr. Angelides. Ann :I see the LA Times political blog has dropped all pretence of being anything but a Shrill Phil Shill and Anti-Arnold central. Not counting the nitwit Kos Kidz and the ghost of ABC. I think they are trying to make sure they get the Angelides tapes of Schwarzneger instead of you, Bill. You better make a move to get those tapes! Tell us about Arnold's girls. Bill Bradley :"vic" was not referring to Dan Nguyen's comment. He was saying this is very common. It's not. Sooth Sayer :This site has become dizzying with the new cast of characters hyping their wares. Barbara :I am watching CSPAN ...the Nevada GUV debate ...the moderator just called security to take away a big burly protester who claimed he is running fr GUV and wanted to participate...I love CSPAN...it rained in Sacto today while the sun was shining! Blue Lou :Why is Schwarznegger so afraid of appearing in public with his running mate Tom McClintock? He is really hurting the McClintock campaign. Bill Bradley :Wellll ... Blue Lou is a fake. > LouisG@mcclintok06.com Who knew? A thousandth word to the wise to the Angelides supporters and Democratic hacks who have spent all year trying to waste my time. It's not smart. clark :I thought the article was going to say his secret weapon was his charater from T2: Steve Smith :Much of the hype over GOTV programs like this are obviously for show. It worked in Ohio to (barely) offset a similar Democratic effort, in a state that was controlled at all levels by the GOP and which leaned slightly to the Republicans for national elections. And there was a gay marriage ban on the ballot to draw the yahoos, an evenly divided electorate, as well as a corrupt Secretary of State to ensure the vote went the right way. And after all that, Bush still only won by 2.5%, worse than what he did in Ohio in 2000. California's a different cookie. It's a state that leans decisively Blue, in a year where the trends are going decisively against the GOP, and there are no social issues on the ballot to enflame the base. And Schwarzenegger's appeal transcends partisan distinctions; no one feels a vote for him is a rejection of the Democratic Party, or vice versa. He realized that the voters in California were liberal, so he tacked sharply to the left this year. So even if the GOTV works as well here as it did in Ohio, it will just mean the downticket races will be decided between 5-10 points, not 10-15. vicstich :"If this is unimportant in 2006, why was it so important in 2004?" Where on earth did you get the idea that I said it was unimportant? I do this professionally for a pittance of what I could make doing other things: you think I do that because I think it's unimportant? Sheesh. What I am pointing out is that these efforts are often overhyped and used for PR purposes. Field work IS important, but it's also important to remember that in the end we're talking about a difference of a percentage point or two in voter turnout. That's worth its weight in gold in politics of course, but it's important not to lose track of the bigger picture: there are a lot of other factors that are as important, and a bunch that are more important. The power of a good field program is often about opportunity: once you get close enough to be within striking distance of a win, field can ensure that you get over the threshold and negate the other side's field efforts. ""vic" was not referring to Dan Nguyen's comment." Uh, yes I was: people were suggesting that having a great field operation would put California in play. It won't. "He was saying this is very common. It's not." Good grief: it IS very common. Last year there were only one major field campaign, but that's because there was only one major state election (Virginia). In 2004, field was doing this in nearly every battleground state, and before that the same thing was going on in 2003 and 2002. This year, coordinated campaigns with field operations are going on in countless states. It's ridiculous to claim that it's not common. This is EXACTLY WHAT FIELD DOES and has always done. Some campaigns are too poor to have field campaigns and often they are organized differently campaign to campaign (for instance, most of the field campaigns I've worked on are "coordinated campaigns" not the actual candidate's operation), but both parties have been in the digital age of working voter files for persusion and targeted GOTV almost a decade now. I see a story about how it's a big new innovation just about ever election, every year, and yes, I find that a little silly. It can't be the next big thing and "we've never done this before" for four years running, can it? Take Virginia, 2005, where I worked. The Democrats ran one of the best field campaigns there ever seen, and they won. Now, I'd love to say that field is what took a candidate from around 13 points down to around 4 points up, but again, that would be overhyping things. Virginia has a pittance of the population that California does, but the Democratic effort was only a little smaller than the one being described here in terms of sheer scale of voter contact (the final GOTV universe and number of contact attempts over time). It made a difference in the final result, but again: I'd be lying and self-aggrandizing if I claimed that it had much more than a percentage point or two difference. It's possible that Kaine still would have won without any field, as much as I hate to admit it, just not by as much. "California could be put into a position where the democrats have to fight very hard there instead of focusing elsewhere." This is true in the sense that California has one of the most expensive media markets in the country. However, whether California is in play for 2008 has FAR FAR more to do with who the candidate is than the strength of the voter file and local organization. Reagan put it in play. I don't see a George Allen, Frist, or even a McCain doing that. Maybe a Guiliani. We'll see. But in any case, unless the CANDIDATE can get the state in play, neither party is going to spend more than a token amount on the state. No amount of party organization or field/GOTV power changes that. Virginia, btw, is also an extremely expensive media market: it coming into play would be almost as bad for Republicans as California coming into play would be for Democrats, and it's a lot more likely to happen, especially if the Dems nominate Mark Warner. Bill Bradley :Two points, Vic, in the limited time I have for this. 1. You were referring to an article being naive and full of hype. There's only one article here. Dan Nguyen's comment is extremely short. So don't try to change what you said. 2. Yes, field operations are common. This sort of operation is not. Bill Bradley :Steve, thanks for the spin. :) Jim,MtnViewCA,USA :Will CA always be blue? I now visit friends in Tracy and Oakdale regularly and it's astonishing to see all the new housing in central CA. These people are married and have jobs. Are they/will they add up to a significant force? wilbur :I don't think blue people turn red just because they move to a red area. It's likely that many/most of those migrants were probably married and employed when they were living in a blue county, and that those life changes are not a consequence of geography (though home ownership may be). I'd expect that these inland migrants tend to purple-ize the inland county as they skew the demographics toward higher education, income and cultural sophistication. And perhaps become a bit purple-ized themselves, as they make new friends and are exposed to new perspectives and influences. Just as many "red" country boys are when they move to the big city. I'd expect these migration trends would tend to bring the blue-red disparities between coastal and valley areas closer to balance (and perhaps contribute to more competitive districts if we could stop the gerrymandering). But that's about it. I do seem to recall reading an article about somebody publishing a scholarly analysis of this phenomenon. Anybody remember who/where that was? Bill Bradley :People aren't moving inland because they're escaping liberalism, they're seeking more affordable housing and less sprawl. (Hence, spreading the sprawl.) Nevada has had an influx of Californians, and is now more Democratic. donkey06 :That Josh Ginsberg is delicious. I'd vote for HIM. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA :No doubt people are moving for many reasons. Not all are moving from liberal NorCal areas, some come from out of state. Smarty Pants :Bill, I was just trying to add to the debate with a few facts few people know. It's gonna matter when the dust settles on November 8th. But I'll keep the insider stuff to myself next time since its not appreciated here. BTW: In case you did not notice, there are a bunch of anons in your comments section. Comments have been archived for this page. |
Pajamas MediaObama’s Rumored Picks Cheer Up GOP That Giant SUCKUP Sound in Washington A Letter from London to Post-Election America Christians and Gays Behaving Badly Social Security Fraud in the Classroom Obama’s Justice Department: Filling in the Blanks Why Al-Zawahri Would Fail as a Talk Show Host Obama’s One-Stop Shop for Foreign Policy Advisers
Support Pajamas Media; Visit Our Advertisers
Support Pajamas Media; Visit Our Advertisers
RSS FeedsADVERTISEMENT
|
digg this
del.icio.us
Uh-oh.
Oct 10, 2006 06:39 AM