New West Notes: Down Ballot Democracy

Down Ballot Democracy
September 11th, 2006
Drama seekers in this year’s California election have held out some hope for some of the down ballot races. After all, there are a few famous, controversial politicians running. But so far, there is a notable lack of dramatic action to be found there, though one may be fairly close.

When you have mercurial former Governor Jerry Brown, a two-time runner-up for the Democratic presidential nomination and current mayor of Oakland, running for state attorney general, you might expect some drama. It hasn’t happened so far, despite his Republican opponent, Fresno area state Senator Chuck Poochigian’s promises to mix it up big time. Brown continues to hold a big lead in the polls and in fundraising, and, aside from exchanges of e-mail fire, both candidates have been quiet on the campaign trail. More about the contest in a moment.

The lieutenant governor’s race has also held promise. Both Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Tom McClintock have run respectable races for governor in campaigns past. Each is pretty well known and respected by voters and knowledgeable and accomplished on the issues. And the two offer a stark ideological choice, with state Insurance Commissioner and former Bill Clinton subcabinet member Garamendi a center-left Democrat and McClintock the state’s most prominent conservative politician.

But again, there have been no fireworks in the contest, at least so far. What there is a closer race. While Garamendi led McClintock by 10 points in the most recent Field Poll, a recent private Democratic poll had the race significantly closer.

And unlike the contest for state attorney general, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor does not have the fundraising advantage, even though McClintock has never been a champion fundraiser. McClintock, who did not have a contested primary, had several times as much money in the bank as had Garamendi at the last reporting period, and sources say Garamendi’s fundraising is not going tremendously. Garamendi had to spend in the primary, coming from behind in the final week against state Senate Jackie Speier.

Now, citing what he is called a $300,000 a week TV advertising campaign on McClintock’s behalf by the state Republican Party, Garamendi has e-mailed supporters with a video plea to match their primary contributions for the general election.

Still, McClintock’s politics are generally well to the right of the California mainstream, although he does have a high favorability rating from the 2003 recall, in which he received widespread praise and little criticism due to the complex circumstances of the campaign.

In the race for state attorney general, Brown has leads of 20-plus points in public and private polls. Although Poochigian ran unopposed for the Republican nomination and Brown faced a contested primary in which he was heavily outspent, Brown began the general election campaign with a big financial edge over the former appointments secretary to then Governor Pete Wilson. Poochigian has raised just under $500,000 since the June 6th primary in funds reported to the California Secretary of State’s web site, less than half that raised by the former governor.

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Ann Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 7:32 am e
What about the mob? lol

Dan Walter Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 7:35 am e
Maybe it’s just me, but I thought when I started blogging about Assemblyman Poochigian taking money from Pfizer and then authoring AB 675 that would gut the California Coporate Liability Act, people might get upset that a man who wants to be Attorney General would be so actively engaged in helping a giant corporation evade justice for knowingly implanting faulty medical devices that caused people’s hearts to explode. [www.consumersunion.org/products/...]
Granted, I’m a Jerry Brown supporter, but come on!
What do you think Bill?

Sullihan Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 7:41 am e
How will the GOP react if AS has no coattails? don’t you think that there is more than a good chance that 06 will repeat ‘82 & ‘86: GOP Gov, all other statewide offices to the Dems?

Barbara Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 8:19 am e
I think McPherson and Poizner for different reasons have a very good chance of winning…I am a volunteer in voter registration but work with people who work day and night on that issue…They say McPherson has been a breath of fresh air to that office and is very ethical and supportive of doing anything and everything to reach out to new immigrant voters…

I like Debra Bowen very much and wished she had taken on Lockyer who I do not have much respect for…no matter who wins at Sec of State …California will be well served…

I am not worried about AG …Brown will win but I worried about Lt Gov …I would hate to see McClintock win..his views on immigration are mean spirited, he did not support school reform in LA, voted for only one of the infrastructure bonds…I hope you Dems don’t neglect JG for Phil…but after giving us Phil over Westly …who knows what you will do?!

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 8:21 am e
I think more than one Republican has a pretty good chance of winning on the ticket.

I’m not familiar with the bill that a poster says would cause people’s hearts to explode …

Barbara Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 9:07 am e
Do you know there is nothing on Ca Maj Report STILL about John Edwards visit! …I could not report anything this morning at my Latte Watering Hole!
Maybe these “insiders” are “so inside” they forgot to come outside and see him! You would thing they would use the site to at least promote the Infrastructure Bonds some of these down ticket people…

Dan Walter Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 9:35 am e
Poochigian: AB 675:http://www.consumersunion.org/products/pfizerwc900.htm
Defective Heart Valves.http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=68

Ann Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 9:52 am e
There’;s very little at Ca Majority Report. Maybe they don’t have enough pols working there. Maybe Bill didn’t do enough videos promoting them. There were 3, right? lol

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 10:30 am e
Sorry I didn’t report on John Edwards myself but I’ve webcast two Angelides speeches lately, to very mixed results, and I’m one person who is not going to dash hither and yon for everything.

Dan Walter Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 11:01 am e
I’m in moderation!

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 11:07 am e
What do you mean, you’re in moderation? You’re drinking moderatly?

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 11:11 am e
Oh, I see, you posted something with more than one web link.

Folks, please refrain from doing that for now.

NWN is under massive spam attacks.

And it is in the process of switching web servers and software platforms.

It’s too much work for me to go through hundreds of spams caught by the anti-spam software to pick out your nugget of multi-linked brilliance.

I’m sure you understand.

Dan Walter Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 11:23 am e
Have you tried Aksimet? (for spam)

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 12:29 pm e
Yes, Akismet is in use. It catches everyhting with more than one link.

Shawn Casey O'Brien Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 12:52 pm e
Good news for PA? Just saw this. Make of it, what you will.

Zogby Poll conducted Aug 29 - Sept. 5

Has PA down by just 3.5. Within the margin error.

Arnold Schwarzenegger held onto his come-from- behind lead in California over Democratic challenger Phil Angelides. After trailing for months, Mr. Schwarzenegger pulled even with and then topped Mr. Angelides late this spring and into the summer. Still, neither candidate has mustered a lead greater than the poll’s margin of error

GUBERNATORIAL: CALIFORNIA

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has held onto his come-
from-behind lead. Challenger Phil Angelides is the Democratic
nominee in a blue state, but sorely lacks the governor’s star
power. In diverse California, Schwarzenegger’s strength comes
from two factors, Zogby finds: He holds a six-point lead among
white voters and a tenuous one-point lead among the state’s
growing Hispanic electorate. Also, Green Party candidate Peter
Camejo is drawing more votes away from Angelides than
Libertarian Art Olivier is pulling from Schwarzenegger. In the back
and forth race this year, neither candidate has mustered a lead
greater than the poll’s margin of error.

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 1:00 pm e
As you know, I think Zogby is bogus and did not bother to report that Schwsarzengger had taken the lead recently after trailing all year, unlike in other polls.

I am part of the Zogby poll, it is self-selecting and online.

Shawn Casey O'Brien Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 2:41 pm e
OK, But he did say “After trailing for months, Mr. Schwarzenegger pulled even…”

Not really a big difference, in terms of what your slamming him for.

As to the poll, as with all polls, it is what it is…

Bill Bradley Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 2:44 pm e
I’ve been through this many times before. This is a busy day. The Zogby poll is bogus, It has bogus methodology, it is consistently out of phase with the major California public and private polls.

Shawn Casey O'Brien Says:
September 11th, 2006 at 2:55 pm e
Thanks for the tip.

Sep 12, 2006 05:55 PM

September 2006

Down Ballot Democracy

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